TLDR
- Conor McGregor returns to UFC after five-year layoff to face Max Holloway at UFC 329 on Saturday
- McGregor is listed as +185 underdog despite beating Holloway in their first meeting 13 years ago
- The 37-year-old will fight at welterweight (170 pounds) after adding muscle mass during his time away
- Most analysts predict Holloway wins, citing McGregor’s age, layoff, and previous ankle injury
- UFC 329 main card begins at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+ with betting odds favoring Holloway at -220
Sources: usatoday.com | sports.yahoo.com
Conor McGregor will return to the UFC octagon on Saturday after a five-year absence, facing Max Holloway in the main event of UFC 329 in Las Vegas. Oddsmakers have installed McGregor as a betting underdog at +185, giving him roughly a 35 percent chance of victory.
The Irish fighter last competed in 2020 when he knocked out Donald Cerrone in the first round. His career has been on hold since suffering a severe ankle injury in his most recent bout.
McGregor, now 37 years old, will compete at welterweight (170 pounds) despite winning championship titles at featherweight and lightweight earlier in his career. He appears to have added muscle mass for this fight, which some analysts believe could hurt his stamina in later rounds.
History Not on McGregor’s Side
The two fighters already met once before in 2013, when McGregor won by decision in what was his second UFC victory. That fight took place 13 years ago when both men were in their early 20s.
💥 #UFC329 updated card: John Garza steps in on short notice to face Farid Basharat in place of Ethyn Ewing pic.twitter.com/0kioysglOT
— 3KFighting (@3KFighting) July 7, 2026
Holloway has remained active during McGregor’s absence, consistently fighting top-level competition. The 34-year-old brings a record of 27-9 into Saturday’s bout compared to McGregor’s 22-6.
Most experts predict a Holloway victory. Tom Aspinall believes McGregor’s punching power could lead to a first-round knockout, but other analysts see a different outcome.
Matthew Petela of Combat Press predicts McGregor will tire himself out early by missing big shots, allowing Holloway to take over with combinations in the third round. Trent Reinsmith of Forbes also favors Holloway by knockout.
Betting Lines and Fight Card Details
The main card starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, with preliminary fights beginning at 7 p.m. and early prelims at 5 p.m. The event will stream on Paramount+.
Betting odds show Holloway as a -220 favorite, meaning bettors would need to wager $220 to win $100. McGregor backers can get +185 odds, which would pay $185 on a $100 bet.
The Over/Under line for total rounds sits at 2.5, with the Over priced at +100. Holloway has been knocked out only once in 38 career fights, showing his durability.
Bookmakers offer McGregor at +265 to win by knockout or TKO and +1200 to win by decision. His submission odds stand at +2000.
Benoit Saint Denis Opens as Betting Favorite Over Paddy Pimblett at UFC 329
The UFC 329 card features several other fights, including Benoit Saint Denis versus Paddy Pimblett at lightweight and Cory Sandhagen against Mario Bautista at bantamweight. Gable Steveson makes his UFC debut as a massive -2800 favorite over Elisha Ellison in the heavyweight division.
McGregor has not won a sanctioned fight in 2,365 days according to Covers. His last victory came against Cerrone more than six years ago.
