TLDR
- McKinney (-170/-185) is the betting favorite; Nelson (+142/+154) is the underdog
- McKinney is 17-8, Nelson is 17-6-1; both are lightweight veterans
- Every one of McKinney’s last 13 fights has ended before the final bell
- McKinney is coming off a submission loss to Chris Duncan; Nelson beat Matt Frevola by decision
- The fight takes place Saturday at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on Paramount+
Main Event Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -142 |
| Joe Pyfer | +120 |
Full Card Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Fighter | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | +160 | Maycee Barber | -192 |
| Michael Chiesa | -900 | Carlston Harris | +600 |
| Julian Erosa | +280 | Lerryan Douglas | -355 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | -135 | Yousri Belgaroui | +114 |
| Terrance McKinney | -170/-185 | Kyle Nelson | +142/+154 |
Fight Time
| Time Zone | Time |
|---|---|
| ET (New York) | 8:00 PM Saturday |
| CT (Chicago) | 7:00 PM Saturday |
| MT (Denver) | 6:00 PM Saturday |
| PT (Seattle/LA) | 5:00 PM Saturday |
| GMT (London) | 1:00 AM Sunday |
| AEST (Sydney) | 12:00 PM Sunday |
Prelims start at approximately 5:00 PM ET. The event streams live on Paramount+.
Only ONE more sleep in Seattle 😴@Stylebender vs Joe Pyfer@AlexaGrasso vs @MayceeBarber 2
[ #UFCSeattle | TOMORROW 8pmET on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/FHC4mN6718
— UFC (@ufc) March 28, 2026
McKinney vs. Nelson: UFC Seattle Odds, Picks and Predictions
Terrance McKinney and Kyle Nelson meet on the main card at UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer. The fight takes place Saturday night at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle.
McKinney holds a record of 17-8. He has gone 7-5 since joining the UFC in 2021.
He is coming off a first-round submission loss to Chris Duncan at UFC 323 in December 2025. That defeat snapped a two-fight winning streak.
Nelson stands at 17-6-1. He has gone 5-5-1 in the UFC since 2018.
His most recent fight was a unanimous decision win over Matt Frevola. That result came after a KO loss to Steve Garcia in September 2024.
McKinney is listed as the favorite at -170 to -185 depending on the book. Nelson comes back at +142 to +154.
McKinney’s Style and Stats
McKinney stands 5-foot-10 with a 73.5-inch reach. He is known for pushing the pace from the opening bell.
He has 8 KO/TKO wins and 9 submission wins across his career. All 12 of his UFC fights have ended inside two rounds.
Not one of his last 13 fights has gone the distance. Oddsmakers reflect this, with the under 1.5 rounds priced at -270.
He takes the center of the octagon quickly and works combinations before transitioning to the ground. His submission attempts are fast and dangerous once the fight hits the mat.
Nelson’s Track Record
Nelson stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach. He is a well-rounded fighter comfortable on the feet and on the ground.
He holds just one submission loss on his record. Against Matt Frevola, he landed 92 strikes to 60 and added two takedowns in the third round.
Nelson has beaten dangerous opponents including Blake Bilder, Bill Algeo, and Matt Frevola. His main concern will be surviving McKinney’s first-round aggression.
He may look to avoid extended grappling exchanges given McKinney’s submission speed. If he gets through the first round, Nelson’s cardio and pace could be deciding factors.
McKinney lost his last fight by first-round anaconda choke. It was his sixth straight fight to end in round one.
