Edgar Chairez vs. Daniel Lacerda 2 prediction | UFC Mexico City 1

Daniel Lacerda and Edgar Chairez have unfinished business in the octagon. The men first fought on September 16th, 2023 however in a massive mistake referee Chris Tognoni stopped the fight prematurely. Chairez had Lacerda in what seemed to be a tight standing guillotine, believing that Lacerda had gone unconscious Tognoni stepped in but immediately realized that The Brazilian was fully awake.

The UFC ultimately elected to rebook the fight, calling the first bout a no-contest. They were pitted to rematch at UFC Fight Night on October 14th, just a month later however medical issues forced Lacerda off of the card at the last minute. They will now run it back this weekend at UFC Mexico City where Chairez will get a chance to potentially earn a true victory in his home nation.

Betting Odds

Edgar Chairez after nearly finishing the choke on Lacerda walks into the rematch at -330 via BetUS.

  • Edgar Chairez: -330 (BetUS)
  • Daniel Lacerda: +240 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Daniel Lacerda is an extremely exciting fighter to watch. He utilizes any and all weapons he can, including flying and spinning strikes regularly. He comes from the Chute Box lineage with a Brazilian Mauy Thai stance. His use of big high-impact strikes, means that when he does miss he misses fairly big and the cost is a drained gas tank at a quicker rate than most other fighters. The flip side however, is that when he does land if he cannot finish his opponents he usually has them hurt enough to make up for a round he will probably have been losing. It takes just one of his shots to connect to turn the tides on pretty much anyone.

It is notable that although fans did not get to see much of the two, he did come out in the first round looking more patient and composed against Chairez than we have seen in the past. It looked as though the game plan was to earn some control on top of Chairez early, another indicator in a more thought-out approach, and also an approach that would allow some time to settle into the fight without getting wild too early.

Chairez for the most part is known for his slick boxing skills. The other tools in his belt are typically used to set up his hands, he will attack the legs to coral his opponents and deaden their footwork, allowing him to touch them better upstairs. Everything starts with the jab and he likes to touch and fade catching his opponents with counters as they are coming in. He is great at cutting angles to open up these counters and moving away. From what we saw in the initial fight, it would seem that his game plan involved offensive grappling as well, immediately working off of his back and attacking multiple chokes.


This is a very good fight. The fact that Chairez had a choke locked on when their first fight finished, as well the recent record of the two means it makes sense that oddsmakers back Chairez in this matchup. However, there are other takeaways from their first fight. Lacerda was able to get a fairly easy takedown early, and as well he was having real success keeping Chairez at kicking range and landing before that. I believe that this extended time off between fights and the extra camp does only aid Lacerda as he looks to sharpen his submission defense and that wrestling approach.

I like Chairez to win, however, Lacerda does have the tools to pull off an upset and I believe he has a better chance than +240 making him a good value for the underdog.

Pick: Daniel Lacerda to win (+240 at BetUS)

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