Mateusz Gamrot rebounded after a split decision loss in his debut to winning back-to-back fights by stoppage. The 31-year-old is 19-1 as a professional with a 58% finish rate. Five years older and ranked #12 in the UFC, Carlos Diego Ferreira is 17-4 overall and 8-4 in the UFC. He has dropped his last two fights, one by split decision and one by stoppage.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Gamrot vs. Ferreira betting odds
Gamrot has grown to a nearly 2:1 favorite since the lines opened.
- Gamrot: -190
- Ferreira: +155
Gamrot vs. Ferreira Breakdown
Gamrot is one of those rare fighters whose well-roundedness is not a criticism. Often, “well-rounded” fighters are solid everywhere but great nowhere. Gamrot is solid everywhere but has also shown sparks of special. He has snipers for hands that combine precision and power. Gamrot is a dedicated and successful wrestler, both offensively and defensively. Lastly, on the feet or on the mat, Gamrot is adept at hunting the finish without putting himself in a compromising position. Statistically, Gamrot has a 4.1 to 2.1 positive significant strike differential, he averages 5.3 takedowns per fight, and defends 100% of opponent attempts. I’ve been impressed by “Gamer,” specifically by his ability to combine explosive striking with explosive wrestling while still maintaining a high fight IQ and a deep gas tank. The only real question with Gamrot, the same question many high-end prospects face, is what happens when he faces adversity? With his natural skill and technical credentials, I feel he’ll respond well.
Despite being on a two-fight losing streak, Ferreira is still ranked and a tough fight for anyone overlooking him. Ferreira is a strong and athletic grappler, has high-level BJJ, and is willing to go to the mat, even in guard, to initiate a scramble. On the feet, Ferreira is solid but unexceptional. He maintains a positive strike differential and a respectable output; but, only lands his strikes at a 37% clip. His typical fight style is to strike enough to close the distance, get the fight against the cage, cause a clinch, and end up in his world- on the mat. Once on the mat, Ferreira is adept at snatching submissions, even from bottom position, or flipping position and grinding out a decision. In either case, Ferreira is comfortable and successful in the clinch and on the ground.
Gamrot vs. Ferreira prediction
Common sense would tell you that Gamrot should be able to stay at range and land strikes with precision for as long as it takes to get the win. But, we’ve seen fighters avoid the path of least resistance in favor of their tendency. For Gamrot, that is wrestling. If he wrestles Ferreira, Gamrot needs to be cautious of submissions, specifically chokes. But, his wrestling pedigree and fight IQ give me confidence that even if he chooses to grapple, Gamrot will secure the win. I prefer him in parlays since his path to victory is varied; but, I like his aggressiveness to hunt and get the finish.
Prediction: Gamrot by finish
Michael Pounders is a high school English Teacher, a boxer himself, and is a fan who loves, gambles on, and nerds out about all things MMA.