TLDR
- Ilia Topuria is a -520 favorite over Justin Gaethje (+390) at UFC Freedom 250 according to DraftKings odds
- The lightweight title fight takes place Sunday on the South Lawn of the White House
- All five CBS Sports experts predict Topuria will win by knockout in the first two rounds
- Gaethje, 37, enters as interim champion but faces steep betting odds despite his recent success
- The co-main event features Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane for the interim heavyweight title as a near pick-em fight
Sources: CBS Sports | MMA Fighting | Bloody Elbow | ESPN | Sporting News
Ilia Topuria enters Sunday’s UFC Freedom 250 main event as a heavy favorite over Justin Gaethje, with sportsbooks listing the lightweight champion at -520. Interim champion Gaethje comes in at +390 according to DraftKings odds as of June 12.
The fight takes place on the South Lawn of the White House, marking a first for the UFC. Topuria will defend his undisputed lightweight title against Gaethje in what many expect to be an explosive matchup.
Topuria is coming off an 11-month layoff and a public divorce that made headlines. However, experts say any concerns about his preparation disappeared after Gaethje brought up his personal issues during fight week.
Gaethje, 37, holds the interim lightweight title and is on what analysts call a renaissance run. Despite his recent success, the betting markets view him as a clear underdog.
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Experts Predict Early Knockout
Five CBS Sports analysts all picked Topuria to win the fight. Four of them predicted a knockout in the first two rounds, with one calling for a first-round finish.
Brian Campbell said Gaethje is “tailor made for everything Topuria does great.” He expects Topuria to use Gaethje’s aggressive style against him for a finish.
Brent Brookhouse pointed to Topuria’s speed as the deciding factor. He noted that Topuria has overcome size disadvantages before against fighters like Charles Oliveira and Max Holloway.
Shakiel Mahjouri highlighted Topuria’s preparation and patience as key advantages. He said Gaethje’s best chance is catching Topuria early or late, but both strategies require too much risk against the champion.
Betting Markets and Prop Options
The steep odds have created debate about betting value. Some analysts question whether laying -520 on Topuria makes sense, even for a favorite.
Others see Gaethje’s power as making him a “live underdog” despite the long odds. The 37-year-old has knockout power that could change the fight instantly.
Prop markets show Topuria favored across multiple finish methods. The knockout and submission props reflect his well-rounded game.
Round betting and over/under totals provide alternative wagering options. Some betting guides suggest hedge strategies using these markets.
The co-main event features Alex Pereira moving up to heavyweight to face Ciryl Gane for the vacant interim title. That fight is listed as nearly even, with Gane at -115 and Pereira at -105.
Other main card fights include Sean O’Malley versus Aiemann Zahabi at bantamweight and Josh Hokit against Derrick Lewis at heavyweight. O’Malley opens as a -425 favorite while Hokit is listed at -410.
UFC Freedom 250 streams live on Paramount+ on Sunday with no additional fee beyond the subscription cost. Plans start at $8.99 per month or $89.99 per year.
