Bill Algeo vs. Kyle Nelson prediction | UFC on ESPN 54 1

Both Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson look to make it three straight wins when they face off this weekend at UFC on ESPN 54. The Delaware county native, Algeo is currently coming off of back to back victories over T.J. Brown and Alexander Hernandez, the former by submission, the later a unanimous decision.

Nelson, who hails from Huntsville, Ontario Canada last defeated both Blake Bilder at UFC 289 and then Fernando Padilla last December. Neither Algeo nor Nelson have ever gone better than two wins in a row inside the UFC, so whoever comes out on top will be riding a career high come Sunday morning.

Betting Odds

Kyle Nelson will make the walk to the octagon as a +195 underdog. This means those who place money on the Canadian look to earn $195 per $100 placed if he comes out on top.

  • Bill Algeo: -235 (BetUS)
  • Kyle Nelson: +195 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Kyle Nelson is a conventional fighter who likes to work his way forward in a. classic May Thai forward stance. He stands very tall and erect and hides behind a very responsible high guard. It is very difficult to find openings in his shell and land cleanly to the head, especially early on. He tends to throw short combinations, and even more so single shots, but thrusts all of his power into just about everything. He does a good job of setting up his big Thai low kicks with his boxing and also mixing in short, no-telegraph-style Dutch kicks to chip away at the legs as much as possible. It’s important to remember that the way which Nelson throws he is always just one clean shot away from a knockout.

Algeo, however, is incredibly hard to hit flush. He stands in a karate stance, switching to both sides as needed, and utilizing flexible kicks from either side. He does a good job of using his lead sidekick to maintain and manage range, touching to set up power kicks from the rear. he also does a good job of cross-stepping with his left cross to blitz forward with punches while using angles to keep a responsible defense. He uses these blitzes to corral his opponents towards the fence and then cuts off the exit with spinning kicks.

Nelson’s use of a high guard makes it very difficult to find his head. Alego needs to attack the body, not just touching with his side and round kicks but truly penetrating to get Nelson’s hands to drop. This will open up later strikes and allow Algeo to open up. He should also look to mix in uppercuts and knees. In his last fight, Nelson was tagged by Padilla, who used a short jab to set up his uppercut, splitting the guard and bringing the shell closer centrally to open hooks around the side. Algeo has to set everything up because he will not receive any free openings upstairs.

For Nelson, because Algeo keeps that bladed stance, the outside leg kicks should be there all day. Nelson likes the left switch already, so watch for him to chop away at Algeo’s movement in this way. Although Algeo is the more elusive fighter, he has been drawn into brawls in the past, and Nelson has to find a way to urge him into that kind of fight.

That being said, he cannot charge in blindly. Algeo has been able to keep his opponents at range so well that it’s not uncommon to see them take big over-dramatic movements trying to break that distance, at which point Algeo walks them onto a short knee down the pipe. He is a master at outside fighting but also knowing that because of this opportunities inside will materialize when his opponents get desperate.

Both men will likely look to test themself on the feet, but they are also two very well-rounded fighters. Algeo has good wrestling, many of his takedowns come off the cage or in a straight blitz like manner as he strikes. He probably has the technical grappling advantage, however Nelson’s ability to take his opponents down with big amplitude takedowns and look to wrestle ride the waist makes it extremely hard for anyone to re-establish control if Nelson initiates first.


Ultimately, I do think that Nelson will have a hard time reaching Algeo. He tends to throw just one or two strikes at a time, intending to hurt with everything instead of boxing his way in with lighter punches. Algeo should be able to keep his distance with his angles and footwork, and stab that sidekick and long straight punches as Nelson misses. Even Nelson’s takedowns tend to work best off the fence so he will have to corner Algeo to start grappling. Over three rounds, I think both men will have their moments, but Algeos will build up and win out over time.

Pick: Bill Algeo to win (-235 at BetUS)

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