UFC 285: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane – A Statistical Breakdown

On Saturday, March 4, UFC 285 will feature one of the most anticipated fights in recent years: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane for the vacant UFC heavyweight title.

Jones, widely regarded as one of the greatest fighters of all time, will make his debut in the heavyweight division after dominating the light heavyweight division for over a decade. Gane, a former kickboxer and Muay Thai champion, will look to spoil Jones’ return and become the heavyweight champion.

Both fighters have been dominant throughout their MMA careers (Jones has one loss by disqualification that is widely considered controversial) and have impressive skills and attributes that make this matchup intriguing.

Jones vs. Gane is the main event of the UFC 285 PPV main card. The only way to watch this fight and all others live on Saturday night is by ordering the official ESPN+ PPV here.

Let’s take a look at some of the key statistics that could determine the outcome of Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane.

Striking

Both Jones and Gane are excellent strikers who can mix up their attacks with punches, kicks, elbows, knees, and spinning techniques. According to official statistics, Gane has a slight edge in striking volume and accuracy, landing 5.11 significant strikes per minute (SLpM) with a 59% accuracy rate, compared to Jones’ 4.30 SLpM with a 57% accuracy rate.

However, Jones has faced tougher competition than Gane throughout his career and has shown more versatility and creativity in his striking arsenal. He also has a longer reach than Gane (84 inches vs. 81 inches), which could help him keep Gane at bay or close the distance when needed.

Gane has shown good striking defense (62%) and durability so far, absorbing only 2.25 significant strikes per minute (SApM). However, he has never faced someone with Jones’ precision at heavyweight. Jones has also displayed excellent striking defense (64%) and chin throughout his career, absorbing only 2.22 SApM.

Grappling

Jones is widely regarded as one of the best grapplers in MMA history, having outwrestled several elite wrestlers such as Daniel Cormier, Rashad Evans, Ryan Bader, Chael Sonnen, etc. He averages 1.85 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 44% accuracy rate. He also has an incredible takedown defense rate of 95%, meaning he rarely gets taken down himself.

Gane did show some grappling skills in his fights against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov but was surprisingly unable to deal with Francis Ngannou’s grappling in their heavyweight title fight. He averages only 0.62 takedowns per 15 minutes with a low accuracy rate of 21%, but he also has a decent submission average of 0.5 per 15 minutes. His takedown defense rate is only 55%, which could be exploited by Jones if he decides to take the fight to the mat.

Summary

This fight is hard to predict because both fighters are so talented and well-rounded that they could win in different ways depending on how they approach it.

However, based on their statistics alone, it seems that Jones has more advantages than Gane in terms of experience level, versatility, reach, grappling, and finishing ability. Therefore, we predict that Jones will win by TKO or submission in the later rounds after wearing down Gane with his diverse striking and grappling attacks.

UFC 285 Event Details

UFC 285 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 4.

The main card will start at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT and will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view for $74.99.

The prelims will start at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT and will be broadcasted on ESPN+ and ESPN2. The early prelims will start at 5:30 p.m. ET / 2:30 p.m. PT and will be streamed on ESPN+ also.

Besides Jones vs. Gane, the main card will also feature a women’s flyweight title fight between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso, a welterweight matchup between Geoff Neal and Shavkat Rakhmonov, a lightweight bout between Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner, and also the UFC debut of Bo Nickal, who is set to face Jamie Pickett.