TLDR
- Michael Chiesa (-800 to -900) is a heavy favorite in what is expected to be his final UFC fight, held in his home state of Washington.
- Niko Price (+550 to +600) stepped in on short notice after the original opponent, Carlston Harris, fell out.
- Chiesa (19-7) is a submission specialist with 12 UFC submission finishes; Price (16-10) is known for unorthodox striking.
- Price has lost three straight, most recently by first-round TKO to Nikolay Veretennikov.
- Most predictions favor Chiesa to win by submission, though Price’s striking poses an early threat.
Main Event Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -142 |
| Joe Pyfer | +120 |
Full Card Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Fighter | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alexa Grasso | +160 | Maycee Barber | -192 |
| Michael Chiesa | -900 | Carlston Harris | +600 |
| Julian Erosa | +280 | Lerryan Douglas | -355 |
| Mansur Abdul-Malik | -135 | Yousri Belgaroui | +114 |
| Terrance McKinney | -170/-185 | Kyle Nelson | +142/+154 |
Fight Time
| Time Zone | Time |
|---|---|
| ET (New York) | 8:00 PM Saturday |
| CT (Chicago) | 7:00 PM Saturday |
| MT (Denver) | 6:00 PM Saturday |
| PT (Seattle/LA) | 5:00 PM Saturday |
| GMT (London) | 1:00 AM Sunday |
| AEST (Sydney) | 12:00 PM Sunday |
Prelims start at approximately 5:00 PM ET. The event streams live on Paramount+.
Only ONE more sleep in Seattle 😴@Stylebender vs Joe Pyfer@AlexaGrasso vs @MayceeBarber 2
[ #UFCSeattle | TOMORROW 8pmET on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/FHC4mN6718
— UFC (@ufc) March 28, 2026
Michael Chiesa vs. Niko Price: A Last-Minute Matchup Headlines UFC Seattle
Michael Chiesa returns to Washington for what is expected to be the final fight of his UFC career. He faces Niko Price, a last-minute replacement, at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle on Saturday, March 28, 2026.
Chiesa (19-7) has been fighting in the UFC since 2012. He stands 6-foot-1 with a 75-inch reach and fights at welterweight (170 lbs).
His most recent win came against Court McGee by unanimous decision. In that fight, Chiesa landed 72 of 160 significant strikes and controlled large portions of the bout.
All 12 of his UFC finishes have come by submission. That ground game is expected to be his main weapon on Saturday night.
Price (16-10, 2 NC) stepped in on just a few days’ notice after Carlston Harris pulled out. He stands 6 feet tall with a 76-inch reach.
Price was knocked out in round one by Nikolay Veretennikov in his last fight. That loss was his third straight, and he has not won in over two years.
Despite the losing streak, Price is known for a high-volume and unorthodox striking style. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute, compared to Chiesa’s 2.03.
The Betting Picture
The odds tell a clear story. Chiesa is priced between -800 and -900, making Price a heavy underdog at +550 to +600.
The over/under line sits at 1.5 rounds, with the over favored at -166. That suggests oddsmakers expect the fight to last past the first round.
One handicapper at Doc’s Sports has gone against the grain, picking Price at +600. Most other analysts back Chiesa.
How Each Fighter Wins
Chiesa’s path to victory runs through the grappling. He attempts 3.05 takedowns per 15 minutes and succeeds on 47% of them.
He also defends 67% of takedown attempts against him. If the fight hits the mat, he is expected to control it.
Price’s best chance comes in the early striking exchanges. He is more accurate on the feet and has finished 10 UFC fights by KO or TKO.
Price has only been submitted twice in his UFC career, which suggests he can handle the ground game better than most opponents Chiesa has faced.
Chiesa allows 1.73 significant strikes per minute, while Price absorbs 5.61. That difference points to Chiesa being the cleaner, more defensive fighter overall.
The fight is set for three rounds. Chiesa’s last bout went the distance, and the over line at -166 suggests this one may as well.
Price accepted this fight on very short notice, which is worth noting given the limited preparation time.
Chiesa is 38 years old. This fight in front of a home crowd in Washington is expected to close out his career.
