As UFC Vegas 77 fast approaches this weekend, all eyes are focused on the main event where Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm squares off against the dynamic Mayra Bueno Silva.
Holm, a boxing hall of famer and one of the sport’s most recognizable faces faces a crucial juncture in her career. Silva, on the other hand, has demonstrated noticeable growth throughout her UFC tenure, transitioning from a submission specialist to a striker with real knockout power.
Despite Holm’spast achievements inside the Octagon, there’s an air of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of this fight, especially considering Bueno Silva’s recent evolution.
Read on as we analyze this main event fight before providing our prediction and best bet.
Betting Odds
Holm will enter the UFC Vegas 77 main event as a moderate betting favorite with odds of -180 against Bueno Silva, who is currently listed at +150.
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Fight Prediction
Holly “The Preacher’s Daughter” Holm, now 41, is an interesting case in the women’s bantamweight division. She is in the boxing hall of fame, is one of the most recognizable names in the sport, and is a vital historical figure in the women’s bantamweight division. However, her recent fighting style is far from the style that put her on the map.
Early in her career, coming to MMA as a highly skilled and accredited boxer, Holm won her first 10 fights, 7 of which by knockout and the last of which is the famous head kick finish of Rousey for the inaugural bantamweight strap. She was athletically, technically, and dangerously beyond her competition. Holm’s hands and kicks were something to be feared and she seemed unstoppable. But, once she got the belt, Holm’s skills seemingly went away and she lost 3 in a row and 4 of 5.
Looking back, we now know she faced excellent competition and her losses were nothing to scoff at. Yet, those losses proved that she is human and seemed to change her style in the cage. Outside of that 1 win in 5 fights, Holm never recorded another finish in MMA. In fact, her once-feared kickboxing went to the wayside and Holm progressed into a much less exciting and much less effective clinch fighter. Recently, she’s won 3 of 5, losing only to Nunes and a controversial split to Vieira.
But, what is most puzzling is that Holm’s boxing and kickboxing, which once took the division over, seem like afterthoughts in her game plan. When she lets her hands go, her striking still is supremely technical, crisp and snappy, and her cardio might even be better now at 41 then when she was the champion. Yet, for some reason, it’s becoming more and more rare to see the striking superstar Holly Holm.
Now, we see a much grappling-focused Holm whose game plan is centered around jabbing her opponent backward with the threat of combinations that never come. Then, when she gets her opponent against the cage, Holm will clinch for the entire fight if allowed to do so. Her cardio and strength often result in her holding the position until the referee breaks it up; but, she rarely deals damage and winning rounds often comes down to how a judge delineates control from stalling.
There was one fight, though, back in 2020 when Holm fought another high-level boxer that the old “Preacher’s Daughter” came out. Holm faced Aldana and won a unanimous decision on the back of 154 significant strikes- the most landed in her career- beautiful combinations, and a willingness to scrap. Many, myself included, thought she was back. But, then, in back-to-back fights, we’ve gotten the tentative and clinch-heavy Holm.
Bueno Silva is a fighter who has clearly grown throughout her UFC tenure. Early on, she was a submission specialist with little ability to land her own takedowns; so, like many other BJJ practitioners, Bueno Silva threw with reckless abandon and dared her opponents to respond to her wild striking with a takedown.
If her opponent stayed on the feet, Bueno Silva’s wild and naturally powerful striking was often enough to overwhelm her opponent. And, if an opponent took her down, it was a matter of moments before Bueno Silva secured a submission, often taking an arm home with her. Recently, evidence of growth is clear.
Bueno Silva’s striking as tightened up, her wrestling has improved, and her ability to string the two together looks more and more natural. She is still a little wild on the feet, but her power, athleticism, and variety often give her an edge over average strikers, specifically with her Muay Thai kicks and knees.
Her wrestling is basic; but, again, her natural size and strength help her land takedowns at a much better clip than early in her career. And, finally, that high-level jiu-jitsu is still as evident as always. The Bueno Silva we have in the cage now is a striker with pop and legit submissions on the mat. The question is whether or not her green striking and basic wrestling can be effective against the top of the division or if those with better technique and more experience will counter either or both.
If we get the Holm, who is willing to throw hands, she should piece Bueno Silva up with ease. While Bueno Silva is strong and powerful, Holm’s experience and abilities are simply far beyond where Bueno Silva is on the feet.
However, if the same Holm, who has shown up most of the time since she lost the belt, clinching for the full fight, Bueno Silva will have plenty of opportunities to land the heavier blows and land takedowns or trips from the clinch. If the fight hits the mat, even with Holm’s hall of fame level of experience, I think Bueno Silva could find a submission finish. It pains me to say it, but I just can’t trust Holm to let her hands go from range and avoid another boring clinch fight.
She might be strong and fundamental enough to pin Bueno Silva against the cage for 25 minutes; but, even if she can do so without Bueno Silva reversing position or getting a takedown, there’s no telling how the judges will see the fight. So, my best bet is for the fight to go the distance (-180). But, as a straight play, I’m slightly siding with the underdog here. I wish I knew which Holm we’re going to get; but, because I don’t, I can’t justify laying the chalk on her.
Best Bets: Fight Goes The Distance (-180) and Bueno Silva to Win (+150)
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