Welcome to S#*%ty UFC Predictions, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. After all, is it really technical skills that win fights? Or is looking at Derrick Lewis swangin’ and bangin’ memes before you set foot in the cage?
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor 2 is this Saturday!
Stream every fight live on ESPN+ starting from 10 pm ET.
- Main event: Poirier vs. McGregor 2
- Co-main event: Hooker vs. Chandler
Today we’re breaking down the Covington vs. Woodley main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel. It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
We got 4 out of 5 winners correct last week (including the split decision for Waterson), marking the most successful run this type of analysis has had yet. What’s that you say? Awful officiating that resulted in Ed Herman getting a submission win in what clearly should have been a round 2 TKO for Mike Rodriguez? Sorry guys, but if the sports bookies don’t care about s#*%ty referees, neither do I.
We’ve also got a new format we’re trying out, so I’m covering three main card fights here and discussing the rest with good friend and MMA analyst Ed Gallo in the video below. If you don’t like it, then say something.
Let’s dive in!
Kevin Holland vs. Darren Stewart
Kevin Holland has gone 6-2 in his UFC tenure, losing only to Thiago Santos and Brandan Allen. “The Trailblazer” has been a middleweight staple for some time now, beating up guys whose names you’d recognize, but aren’t really sure what weight class they compete in. This fight will be his third in 4 months, and he’ll be looking for a third straight finish after starching Anthony Hernandez and Joaquin Buckley his last two times out.
Darren Stewart last fought this past August, choking out a dude nicknamed “Coconut Bombz” in the first round. Prior to that, “The Dentist” lost to Bartosz Fabinski by unanimous decision at Cage Warriors 113 in March, when Dana White decided he’d let the European promotion pay two of his fighters with very little name value to headline their card in the middle of a pandemic. Weird flex Cage Warriors, weird flex.
Now if we’re talking in terms of “technical skill” Holland should win this fight, but nicknames play a big role in this one. I was only able to find a couple of photos of Holland smiling online without his mouthguard, allowing me to infer that he doesn’t like to show his teeth much. My guess is he’s not flossing regularly, thus dreading his next dentist appointment and giving Stewart, a dentist in his own right, a massive psychological advantage. If Holland has specific teeth issues or, dare I say, Gingivitis, this will be round 1 for sure.
Darren Stewart via TKO R1
Mackenzie Dern vs. Randa Markos
Ah, Mackenzie Dern. Whether it’s the developed accent, the multiple weight misses, or the pregnancy announcement that sent several delusional admirers into a rage about their missed chance with the multiple time ADCC gold medalist, she has rubbed a lot of MMA fans the wrong way. 1-1 since coming back from her childbearing layoff, she became the first woman in UFC history to finish a fight by any form of leg lock last May when she caught Hannah Cifers in a kneebar.
Randa Markos will be making her first trip to the octagon since losing to Amanda Ribas back in March, the only woman to have defeated Dern. “The Quiet Storm” is clearly a disciple of the marvel movie villain Thanos, as she has alternated wins and losses consistently since 2015, regardless of who her competition may be. The only break in this pattern was when she had a majority draw against Marina Rodriguez in 2018, and even then, that technically keeps the balance.
Y’all know how I feel about alternating wins and losses (see Modafferi vs. Lee last week), and the math says Markos is due for a win here. Storm’s a-comin’, though you probably won’t know when it’s here because it’ll be quiet.
Markos via Split Decision
Johnny Walker vs. Ryan Spann
In what can be considered a pivotal matchup at 205 lbs. because any fight is significant when the division is that shallow, Johnny Walker will be taking on Ryan Spann in the third main card fight of the night. Once the light heavyweight division’s rising star, Walker’s goofy antics filled hype-train was swiftly derailed when Corey Anderson managed to beat him down at UFC 244 last November. Although he tried to rebound against Nikita Krylov this past March, the Brazilian couldn’t get it done and is now on the first losing streak of his professional career.
Ryan “Superman” Spann on the other hand is on an 8-fight win streak, with six of those wins coming by way of stoppage. Making the most of his second opportunity on Dana White’s Contender Series, Spann hasn’t lost a bout since returning to 205 lbs. back in 2017. Although he hasn’t walked out to Shaquille O’Neil’s 1998 hit classic as many times as I would have preferred, He’s certainly doing his best to live up to his nickname inside the octagon.
To put it simply, Walker is the equivalent of a gigantic 8 -year-old let loose in the octagon after eating a Halloween-size candy haul. He either gets a crazy KO and gives himself a rib injury in celebration, or gets beaten down by an older kid who holds his composure. Even though Spann’s last win was a split decision over Sam Alvey (oof), I’m pretty sure he has the patience and power to knock Walker out. Lex Luthor, Walker is not.
Ryan Spann via R2 TKO
For the rest of the main card picks, check out the video with me and Fight Site/Bloody Elbow MMA analyst Ed Gallo here:
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.