UFC on ESPN 36: Jake Hadley vs. Allan Nascimento prediction, odds, preview 1

High-end flyweight prospect, Jake Hadley, holding a professional record of 8-0, will make his long-awaiting UFC debut. Meanwhile, Hadley’s opponent, Allan Nascimento, holding a professional record of 18-6, will look to continue his impressive UFC talent display inside the octagon.

In Hadley’s DWCS fight, he showed poise and a well-round skill-set. Meanwhile, Nascimento has put forth performances as a sizable dog that have resulted in split-decision outcomes against the top echelon of the division. Using recent performances from each net the conclusion that both men have the ability to be ranked in the deepening flyweight division; thus, with this underlying preface at hand coupled with knowing the track record of each looking for a finish at all moments of the fight results in this being an electrifying bout from beginning to end.


Hadley, being an undefeated prospect, is a somewhat sizable -220 favorite over the battle-tested Nascimento.

  • Hadley: -220
  • Nascimento: +175

A successful $100 bent on Hadley would return $145.50 following the fight at UFC on ESPN 36 this weekend. Alternatively, a winning $100 bet on Nascimento would see a $275 return.


As stated in the introduction, Jake Hadley is not only an undefeated flyweight who is making his UFC debut, but also, a fighter who has many in the MMA community believing he has the potential to be a future top-of-the-rankings type of fighter. The main reason for his high-end potential is due to a combination of him being a well-rounded fighter with an underlying elite aspect of his game – grappling. The elite grappling Hadley has displayed thus far as a professional is him dictating ideal positions, both in terms of getting the fight to the mat, and then once there, inflicting enough damage from the top position to make his opponent turn, give up their back, thus allowing him to secure a Rear-Naked Choke. This elite grappling has been successful against non-UFC talent, but the technical ability Hadley has displayed in those bouts coupled with him chaining grappling off of solid striking reasons he will have success grappling in the UFC. But, as with many DWCS first-time fighters, Hadley will need to show he can perform against legitimate UFC talent, and Nascimento is not only that but also, a tough fight for any, yes, any, non-top ranked flyweights.

Somewhat similar to Hadley, Nascimento has borderline elite submissions as 13 of his 18 wins have come via submission. The difference between him and Hadley is that Nascimento can secure submissions from a plethora of angles and positions, thus reasoning he has the advantage on the mat. This perceived advantage cannot go understated, particularly knowing Hadley has an affinity to chain wrestle his way to victory. So, if Hadley does in fact employ a similar game plan as done prior, Nascimento’s active guard from his back may result in him securing the win.

If Hadley does not elect to wrestle the dangerous submission artist in Nascimento, Nascimento has shown he has struggled to secure a takedown for himself. For this reason, the fight may end up being a standing affair, and if indeed the case, Nascimento has every bit of chance of securing the victory. This is largely due to him having underrated striking, as he has both speed and a variety of attacks he can go to when needed. Once more, he has the ability to throw without fear of being taken down, because as stated, if he gets taken down, Nascimento has the active ground game from his back to find a submission.


This fight can go in many different directions. Knowing this, coupled with knowing Nascimento has performed well, both as an underdog and against elite competition, reasons that the value is on him in this fight. Regardless of this, I am still electing the back Hadley. The reasoning for this stems from believing the striking will be even, but if grappling ensues, Hadley will more than likely be the aggressor and secure the top position. Once there, Hadley has the comfort and knowledge to negate the submissions of Nascimento, so, I believe he will win control-time his way to victory.

Bet: Hadley by Dec

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