UFC Fight Night Prediction: Mana Martinez vs. Guido Cannetti odds, analysis

After the tragic death of his head coach Saul Soliz the 25-year-old Metro Fight Club product, Mana Martinez, will open up the Saturday night card against Guido Cannetti. Martinez is 8-2 overall with all eight wins coming via KO/TKO within the first two rounds. Cannetti, 41-years-old and 8-5 overall has split his wins with three KO/TKO, three submissions, and two decisions. Cannetti is 0-2 in his last two fights, each ending in the first two rounds.

Martinez vs. Cannetti betting odds

Martinez is a sizable -275 favorite over Cannetti at +215. This means Martinez is more than a 2.5:1 favorite.

• Martinez: -275
• Cannetti: +215

Martinez vs. Cannetti Breakdown

After losing to Drako Rodriguez on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020, Martinez rattled off back-to-back impressive finishes and is now making his UFC debut. In his last two wins, he totaled 1:32 of fight time, combined, before knocking out his opponent. This represents how “Manaboi” fights- quickly and deadly. At 5-foot-10, Martinez is a big bantamweight who uses his reach well as he pours on the pressure. He throws and lands his punches with precision and power. The two question marks around his game are- takedown defense and cardio. On DWCS, Rodriguez was able to take Martinez down and submit him quickly despite Martinez’s length and BJJ background. Additionally, since all eight of Martinez’s wins have come within the first two rounds, he has not successfully shown he can win late in a fight.

Cannetti is fighting to keep his job. If he loses Saturday, he’ll be 0 for his last 3 and possibly out of the UFC. Even if he isn’t handed his pink slip, at the age of 41, Cannetti is likely out soon anyways. This situation can make him dangerous for anyone overlooking the Argentinian. “Ninja” fights like the grizzled veteran that he is. He is willing to get in tight, fight in the pocket, and look to dirty box or clinch his way to victory. Even though he has 6 finishes on his record, Cannetti hasn’t finished a fight since 2013. Instead, he will look to survive the early power of Martinez and test the young fighter’s cardio and toughness.

Martinez vs. Cannetti Prediction

In short, I don’t see Canetti being able to withstand Martinez’s power long enough to test Martinez’s cardio and toughness. Martinez’s power is elite, his striking is crisp, and Canetti looked overwhelmed in his last two fights. I see Martinez dropping Canetti early; but, whether the finish will be KO/TKO or submission is tough to call. Instead, I’ll take Martinez inside the distance. As a money-line play, I like him in parlays too.

Prediction: Mana Martinez inside the distance