UFC Fight Night Prediction: Julian Erosa vs. Charles Jourdain odds, analysis

Saturday’s UFC event will kick off with a catchweight bout between two tenacious fighters. Regardless of their stylistic differences, Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain share one important attribute in the fight game. Across both men’s last few fights, they have both shown an ability to revel in the late chaos, chasing violent come from behind victories and securing them with their skills but backed by particularly ferocious mentalities.

In 2015, a young Julian Erosa first stepped into the renowned octagon after a stint on The Ultimate Fighter. He would only last two fights in the promotion before being cut but returned in 2018 to another disappointing tenure. He would leave the UFC again in 2019 but rebound with a win in smaller promotion, Cage Sport. This would win Erosa an opportunity as a late replacement back in the UFC, which he took full advantage of, securing a highlight reel submission and career permanence in 2020. Since then he has gone 1-1.

Charles Jourdain, a young prospect out of Quebec, Canada, earned the nickname ‘Air’ Jourdain, with his affinity for flashy highlight packed fights. Over his ten wins, he has ten finishes and has only lost by decision. In 2019 Jourdain defeated his most well-known opponent, Doo Ho Choi in Korea, since going 1-1-1 but riding the momentum of a win into his bout this Saturday.

Erosa vs Jourdain betting odds

• Julian Erosa: +155
• Charles Jourdain: -185

Erosa vs. Jourdain breakdown

Julian Erosa is an orthodox fighter with good boxing and leg kicks. He likes to fight long but transitions to much shorter boxing, particularly with the uppercuts if he hurts his opponents and feels he can bully them backward. Specifically, he has very good shot selection with his hands, and in movement he is more accurate than your average fighter, splitting the guard in high-paced scrambles.

This high-paced kind of fight is what he looks for, not only does Erosa have good cardio, but he stays composed taking shots and is efficient with his own offense. Rarely does he bounce around needlessly, rather he steps and walks his opponents down in a way that doesnt tire him needlessly.

One hole that became painfully clear in his last outing, is that when throwing his heavy right leg kick, a technique he uses often- he is open to the counter right straight down the pipe. Against Seung Woo Choi, this particular punch landed on Erosa numerous times in just the first round before ultimately beginning the combo that ended him. Watch for him to make the proper adjustments when kicking this time around.

The most dangerous area for most to be in against Erosa is late in the fight when he feels he has the momentum. As stated before, Erosa has good shot selection when his opponent is falling back, but it is also his ability to perform in the moment. When he feels his opponent fading late, Erosa will make it very obvious he is enjoying the fight, he will plant and rip power shots unlike his more fluid approach earlier, and he will begin talking and showboating, thoroughly enjoying the chaos in the final moments.

However if anyone else can do the same it’s Charles Jourdain, who also likes to sit on his shots, push forward and rip with power when he feels his opponent fade. In the opening round, look for Jourdain to work outside, displaying his creativity and technique. He prefers a very kick-heavy approach but has a laser left cross as well.

Although cited often as a southpaw, Jourdain fights comfortably from both stances, and will typically choose one depending on the opponent and game plan. His best setup for his left is starting in orthodox, stepping back as his opponent moves in, and blasting the left onto his oncoming foe. His left high kick is his most prominent weapon from either side, as well as either leg kick.

When being pressured himself early, he has a bad habit of shelling up as if he is wearing boxing gloves, but because of the high guard becomes susceptible to the body. His body has not failed him yet, but the opening has been there. However late, as he finds himself the one to press forward against more fatigued opponents, he will bite down, throw hard and creatively.

In terms of grappling, both men are very proficient. Erosa’s game is high pressure, and he likes to chain together jiu-jitsu techniques one step ahead, at a pace difficult to match. Jourdain on the other hand is a much more opportunistic grappler. Although he does not shoot often, if he finds someone shooting at him he is quick to counter, sprawl, and hunt the neck. He is always searching for the finish so expect him to look for the submission rather than fight the takedown if he even remotely thinks it is there.

Erosa vs. Jourdain prediction

I think that it will be a battle for momentum right off the bat. Both do well when they feel the tide has shifted onto their side. Both do well when the going gets rough due to solid mental ability in the chaos. Likely, the fight will play out for whoever rises to the occasion on the night.

However, I think that Jourdain has more weapons, and riding the momentum coming off a win will allow him to come in and lean on confidence more quickly than Erosa. I expect Jourdain to land more damaging strikes in the first half of the fight, putting him in a better position late where the defining moments will be, and Jourdain will come out on top.

Prediction: Charles Jourdain by KO