UFC Fight Night 195 Predictions: Julian Marquez vs. Jordan Wright betting odds, analysis

Julian Marquez is commonly seen as a veteran of the UFC, but he has only had four fights in the promotion since earning his contract on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017. Since then, Marquez is 3-1 with all three wins coming by submission. Interestingly, those three submission wins were the first of Marquez’s professional career.

On the other side, Jordan Wright is also a Dana White’s Contender Series alum from 2018. He is also 3-1 since earning his contract and all four fights have been finished by knockout.

Marquez vs. Wright betting odds

Marquez is heavily favored to defeat Jordan Wright at UFC Fight Night 195 this weekend.

• Marquez: -250
• Wright: +195

Marquez vs. Wright breakdown

After nearly a three-year layoff, Marquez returned to the UFC in 2021 where we saw him finish the fight with a third-round submission. He is a solid boxer with reliable power and a stone jaw. In that return fight in 2021, Marquez ate shot after shot against a power striker but was able to remain standing and rally for a win. He excels in wars of attrition where he can exchange power shots with a willing striker. In these fights, since he is often the more difficult fighter to finish, Marquez is able to land the higher volume; or, recently, find a submission win late in the fight. He has never been finished and has rallied in the third round several times to get a late finish.

Unlike Marquez who excels late in fights, Wright excels early. All 12 of Wright’s wins have come within the first six minutes. He is an awkward striker who has a kick and knee-heavy approach. I describe him as awkward because his kicks and knees often come “offbeat” and from odd angles. “Offbeat” means that within the normal rhythm of a fight, Wright times his strikes off rhythm. This helps him land 60% of his strikes. While Wright’s strikes are often awkward, they are consistent. He averages seven significant strikes per minute. Further, Wright has a solid submission game that he likes to utilize after dropping his opponent rather than looking for a takedown. This awkward and aggressive approach has proved successful for Wright.

Marquez vs. Wright Prediction

Both of these fighters have a unique skill set that makes them fun to watch. Wright will move forward and Marquez will be there to be hit. Wright could get the finish early; but, Marquez has never been finished. Since Marquez is so hittable and often puts himself in dangerous positions, I like Wright in this fight. Marquez’s chin means Wright likely won’t be able to knock him out; so, even though it’s a long shot, I like Wright by submission. I see him hurting Marquez, getting him against the cage, dragging him down, and finding the neck like he did in the regional circuit four times.

Prediction: Wright by submission