UFC Fight Night 192 Prediction: Ariane Lipski vs. Mandy Bohm odds, analysis
At UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann, fans will be subject to a clash of the women flyweights just before the main and co-main event bouts take place. Fitting her nickname “The Queen of Violence,” Brazil’s Ariane Lipski has shown finishing ability wherever the fight goes. A national Muay Thai champion in the days prior to MMA, it is common knowledge to avoid the power in her hands. In a demonstration of how well-rounded she has become, she even added a ‘submission of the year contender’ to her resume with her highlight reel kneebar in 2020.
Her opponent Mandy “Monster” Bohm will be making the jump from Bellator MMA into the UFC when she meets Lipski this Saturday. The SBG Ireland standout began her career in 2014 with a no contest, however, making up for it nonetheless going 7-0 afterward building up an impressive undefeated record to date. With a ratio of 2-2-3 between knockouts, submissions, and decisions, she has proven to be a well-rounded athlete, and looks to cement her pedigree inside the famed octagon as she has done outside
Lipski vs. Bohm betting odds
Neither side of the match-up comes in the favorite, at a matching 115. This means that regardless of who you bet on, a risk of $1 expects a total return of $1.87 if you pick correctly.
- Lipski: -115
- Bohm: –115
Lipski vs. Bohm breakdown
Ariane Lipski’s extensive background in Muay Thai really defines her MMA style. She utilizes good footwork and feints and stays relatively light on her front leg so as to mix up her attacks. From the outside, off of the slip she has wicked overhand rights and good hooks, as well as upper cuts. While these wider whipping shots do her well from a distance, when she slips close, tightening up her strikes may improve her game. On a number of occasions, slipping inside neatly gives her the opportunity to land but she is just a bit wide with her shots.
Regardless she is fast and dangerous everywhere on her feet and always poses a threat. She also has a strong clinch game in which she can control position very well.
On the mat is where she has more issues. When the grappling is initiated by Lipski, she likes to control top and force awkward and dynamic positions. In these positions, her calmness and talent for creative scrambles shines through, she can take risks from top control and usually pull off unexpected submissions or sequences. If she finds herself being controlled on the bottom is the problem. In her last two outings, the blueprint to beat her was established, control her and force her to lean on the fundamentals.
As of now her grappling fundamentals have not caught up with her striking, and given a bad position, she usually attempts basic hip escapes. If these do not work, a lack of plan B becomes apparent. Her calmness in chaos, while it helps her stay composed in control also manifests in a lack of urgency when she is losing, from guard if she is sustaining ground and pound, there have been times where she takes it without too much comfortability.
The takedown and basic top pressure will be an important part of Bohm’s gameplan coming in. However, like Lipski, Bohm is also predominantly a striker. She is more well-rounded than the Brazilian, but her area of expertise is the clinch.
Starting from outside Bohm with a good reach for the division will willingly pick apart her opponents from the outside with her teep and jab. Although she and Lipski will be virtually identical in height and reach on Saturday.
From the outside, if she can frustrate her opponents, she can force them to look for new ways in range. When they do break the distance, Bohm is especially good at shifting her range, catching the plums, and attacking from clinch strikes down the middle. In the open area of the cage, her Thai plum clinch and knees are most deadly but against the fence look for her to also dirty box.
However, outside of the clinch, in purely striking scenarios, she will be giving up a speed and technical advantage to the former Muay Thai champion Lipski.
From a grappling perspective, Bohm uses solid wrestling. Although her takedowns are good, she hasn’t always been the best at maintaining top control, however, she is very good at ending the wrestling scrambles back into the clinch where she does her best work. From the bottom it is the same, she will tie up her opponent, force them to counter and transition her way back to her feet and against the cage.
Lipski vs. Bohm prediction
The primary focus for each woman is clear. For Bohm, avoid a fight that is most decided in a traditional striking distance. For Lipski, she has to avoid the takedown and the clinch. Bohm is undefeated and riding impressive momentum, however, this is likely her biggest test to date and I am not confident that her ability to challenge Lipski at range will match her success in the past.
Lipski training at American Top Team has known what aspects in her game have needed intense work lately. If she has made the proper adjustments, I think the faster more experienced fighter can come out on top and show why she is on paper fighting at a higher level than Bohm.
Prediction: Ariane Lipski to defeat Mandy Bohm
Braeden Arbour is an aspiring journalist out of Ontario, Canada. He is a recent graduate of Trent University, with a black belt in Karate and a blue belt in Judo. He has also been an avid fan of MMA for the last decade.