UFC 279 Odds: Why Nate Diaz is huge underdog vs. Khamzat Chimaev
Nate Diaz will be up against the odds yet again when he returns at UFC 279 on Saturday, Sept. 10, in Las Vegas.
As it stands, Diaz is currently a massive +850 betting underdog against Chimaev. Chimaev’s remarkable -1600 odds as the betting favorite represent a 94 percent implied probability of winning. In practical terms, a simple $100 wager on Chimaev would return just $6 if he’s successful at UFC 279.
The Diaz vs. Chimaev betting odds should come as no surprise to those who have followed the career of both fighters. In fact, when they touch gloves on Saturday night, it’ll mark the ninth consecutive fight that Diaz has been a betting underdog on the closing lines. The last time that Diaz had closed as a betting favorite was all the way back in 2013 when he faced Josh Thomson on UFC on FOX 7.
Nate Diaz’s odds – last ten fights
- Leon Edwards (+385) – L
- Jorge Masvidal (+135) – L
- Anthony Pettis (+110) – W
- Conor McGregor II (+375) – L
- Conor McGregor (+122) – W
- Michael Johnson (+315) – W
- Rafael dos Anjos (+250) – L
- Gray Maynard (+110) – W
- Josh Thomson (-145) – L
- Benson Henderson (+185) – L
And despite entering as an underdog in nine of his last ten fights, Diaz has managed to win four bouts and returned a total profit for those who had backed him. Put simply, a $100 bet on each of Diaz’s last ten bouts ($1,000 total) would have returned $1,057. Not bad, considering how the bookmakers have shaped up before his fights so far.
Arguably the most interesting takeaway is how insane Diaz’s +850 odds vs. Chimaev look in comparison to the rest of the listed fighters above. He was a huge +385 underdog against now-champion Leon Edwards when they fought in June last year and, despite the odds, almost managed a stunning upset in the final minute of the fight.
So why is Nate Diaz such a huge underdog against Khamzat Chimaev before UFC 279?
UFC fighters recently shared their Diaz vs. Chimaev predictions, and while many are hoping that Diaz will be successful on the night, many believe that Chimaev is the far more skilled fighter overall. Chimaev’s dominant pressure wrestling, powerful striking, and relative unpredictability as a fighter will likely cause a stylistic nightmare for Diaz on the weekend. Some fighters also fear that Diaz isn’t mentally ready for the fight with Chimaev.
Diaz may hold advantages in both submission ability and endurance, but it’s possible that Chimaev may be able to finish the fight early and prevent Diaz from sneaking into the later rounds. Chimaev’s elite wrestling and heavy top pressure may also disable Diaz’s tricky submission game to some extent.
As always, The Body Lock’s expert analysts will provide detailed fight breakdowns before the UFC 279 fights this weekend, including the Diaz vs. Chimaev main event. Visit our site closer to the fight date for more breakdowns and analysis of the main event bout.
Watch Diaz vs. Chimaev live
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 10
- Time: PPV Main Card starts at 10 pm ET, Prelims start at 6 pm ET
ESPN+ PPV (order here)
Nate Diaz vs. Khamzat Chimaev is the main event of the UFC 279 PPV main card. Fans can order UFC 279 on the ESPN+ website to watch every main card fight live, including the Diaz vs. Chimaev. After ordering, fans can stream every UFC 279 fight to a preferred device, including TVs, mobiles, computers, laptops, tablets, and more.
UFC 279 Fight Odds
Saturday, Sept. 10 – T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas
Main Card – 10:00 pm ET / 7:00 pm PT only on
- Khamzat Chimaev (-1600) vs. Nate Diaz (+850)
- Li Jingliang (-280) vs. Tony Ferguson (+210)
- Kevin Holland (-210) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+165)
- Irene Aldana (-220) vs. Macy Chiasson (+175)
- Johnny Walker (+150) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-180)
Prelims – 8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT on ESPN+
- Hakeem Dawodu (-230) vs. Julian Erosa (+180)
- Denis Tiuliulin (+110) vs. Jamie Pickett (-140)
- Jake Collier (-360) vs. Chris Barnett (+260)
Early Prelims– 6:30 pm ET / 3:30 pm PT on ESPN+
- Norma Dumont (-350) vs. Danyelle Wolf (+250)
- Chad Anheliger (+140) vs. Alateng Heili (-170)
- Melissa Martinez (-155) vs. Elise Reed (+125)
- Darian Weeks (-140) vs. Yohan Lainesse (+110)