Number 10 ranked, Marcin Tybura, holding a professional record of 22-7, is set to fight Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who is the number 8 ranked heavyweight and has a 12-3 professional MMA record.
Both men are coming off tough losses against highly respected heavyweights within the UFC. The talent each has at their disposable, albeit quite different in style, enables them to climb the rankings quite quickly and be put in the conversation for high-end contention with a win over the other. Meanwhile, a loss will result in a two-fight losing streak which will put them in danger of potentially being cut. The amount of stakes at hand within this matchup mixed with heavyweight battles being inherently entertaining makes for a truly electrifying fight, and one you certainly do not want to miss!
The slightly higher-ranked, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, is a small -150 favorite over the challenger, Marcin Tybura.
- Rozenstruik: -150
- Tybura: +130
As stated in the introduction, the fighters in this matchup differ in style. In the more traditional heavyweight sense, Rozenstruik relies on his striking acumen to secure victories when in the octagon. Having been a battle-tested and renowned kickboxer prior to transitioning to MMA, he is perceived to have all the talent needed on the feet to contend against the best heavyweights in the UFC. More specifically, Rozenstruik’s comprehension of distance, the differential in striking tactics, and ultimately, utilization of power, makes him a prospect to keep one’s eye on moving forward.
The prospect tag affiliated with Rozenstruik has not been able to be successfully transitioned into realized talent because he has struggled against a variety of differing high-end talented fighters. Two notable examples include Francis Ngannou blitzing Rozenstruik and ending his night in a matter of seconds; meanwhile, the other example is Curtis Blaydes successfully wrestling Rozenstruik for 15 minutes and earning a convincing decision victory. Albeit Rozenstruik has struggled against elite power pressure and strong wrestling, he has done well against non-elite fighters in the past. This success largely originates from his ability to establish a safe distance of striking, where he can land impressive kicks and strong combinations with his hands. So, for him to have sustained success, he will need to dictate the range and keep the fight standing; and if done successfully, he has the high-end kickboxing skillset to beat non-elite heavyweight fighters.
While Rozenstruik is a somewhat traditional heavyweight, whereby he wants to keep the fight standing, Tybura is one that wants to use pressure and size to clinch-wrestle his way to victory. This style, of putting on pressure to negate distance, and then, clinch against the cage to land a takedown, has proved successful for Tybura. Prior to his last fight, he had a 5-fight win streak which perhaps surprised many in the MMA community. In his last fight, facing a talented veteran of the sport, Tybura struggled to land a single takedown – 0 of 16 – and this failure resulted in him losing the bout, thus, halting his fight win streak. This last fight illustrated that if Tybura cannot get the fight to the mat, where he then lays on his opponent and inflicts ground and pound, he is a step-behind other ranked heavyweights on the feet. So, in this particular fight, Tybura will need to find better success in securing the takedown attempts because he has shown the skills he has on the feet are far less than what Rozenstruik has at his disposal.
While the fight can go in any direction given the fight-ending power heavyweights have, my prediction of how each fighter can win is quite easy. For Rozenstruik, he will need to keep the fight off the mat, and if done, he will likely win by KO. For Tybura, if he can avoid the power of Rozenstruik when cutting down distance, he will likely be able to secure a takedown and win quite comfortably. Knowing what each needs to do, I am electing to back Tybura in this bout given I anticipate him successfully pressuring Rozenstruik, putting him against the cage, and once there, successfully land a takedown. If successful, this tactic will be down each round, so I believe Tybura will win by decision.
Bet: Tybura by Decision