- Vicente Luque faces Joel Alvarez in a welterweight bout at UFC Rio on October 11 at Farmasi Arena in Brazil
- Alvarez is the heavy betting favorite at -470 while Luque is listed at +360
- Alvarez makes his welterweight debut after three straight knockout victories at lightweight
- Luque has lost four of his last six fights including recent stoppage defeats
- The fight features a size advantage for Alvarez who stands 6 feet 3 inches tall with a 77-inch reach
Main Event Odds
Vicente Luque: +360
Joel Alvarez: -470
Over 1.5 rounds: +110
Under 1.5 rounds: -140
Full UFC Rio Fight Card Odds
155 lbs.: Charles Oliveira (-106) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-115)
135 lbs.: Deiveson Figueiredo (+260) vs. Montel Jackson (-340)
170 lbs.: Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
170 lbs.: Vicente Luque (+460) vs. Joel Alvarez (-676)
265 lbs.: Jhonata Diniz (-140) vs. Mario Pinto (+114)
145 lbs.: Ricardo Ramos (-216) vs. Kaan Ofli (+173)
155 lbs.: Lucas Almeida (+130) vs. Michael Aswell (-160)
125 lbs.: Jafel Filho (+103) vs. Clayton Carpenter (-126)
265 lbs.: Vitor Petrino (-330) vs. Thomas Petersen (+255)
135 lbs.: Irina Alekseeva (+470) vs. Beatriz Mesquita (-699)
125 lbs.: Lucas Rocha (-106) vs. Stewart Nicoll (-115)
265 lbs.: Valter Walker (-330) vs. Mohammed Usman (+250)
115 lbs.: Julia Polastri (-490) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+360)
135 lbs.: Luan Lacerda (-270) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+210)
Vicente Luque faces Joel Alvarez in a welterweight bout on the main card at UFC Rio on October 11. The fight takes place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Luque enters as the underdog at +360 despite fighting in his home country. The Brazilian welterweight holds a professional record of 23-11-1. He has struggled recently with losses in four of his last six fights.
Alvarez is listed as the heavy favorite at -470. The Spanish fighter has compiled a record of 22-3 overall. He makes his welterweight debut after competing at lightweight throughout his UFC career.
The 33-year-old Luque has been a fixture in the welterweight division for years. His recent losses include submission defeats to Kevin Holland and knockout losses to Joaquin Buckley and Geoff Neal. He bounced back with a decision win over Rafael dos Anjos and a submission victory over Themba Gorimbo.
Luque has recorded 20 career finishes with nine knockouts and 11 submissions. He lands over five strikes per minute but also absorbs more than five. His strike defense sits around 52 percent with takedown defense at 61 percent.
Alvarez rides a three-fight winning streak into his welterweight debut. His recent victories include knockout wins over Drakkar Klose and Elves Brener. His only UFC loss came against top contender Arman Tsarukyan in 2022.
The 31-year-old Spanish fighter has recorded 22 finishes in 22 career wins. He has five knockouts and 17 submissions. Eight of his nine UFC fights have ended inside the distance with seven wins and one loss.
Alvarez moved up from lightweight after experiencing weight-cutting issues. He stands 6 feet 3 inches tall with a 77-inch reach. His size and length will be tested at welterweight for the first time.
Physical Advantages
The size difference between the two fighters is substantial. Alvarez holds a pronounced height and reach advantage over Luque. His naturally large frame struggled to make lightweight throughout his career.
Alvarez uses his length to control distance with jabs and front kicks. He lands 4.5 strikes per minute with 53 percent accuracy. His rangy frame allows him to keep opponents at bay and rack up damage from the outside.
Luque’s power works well in combination striking and low kicks. He excels at limiting reach advantages and disrupting rhythm through opening exchanges. The Brazilian veteran has proven durability and willingness to engage in firefights.
Luque returned from a brain bleed scare in 2022. His recent performances have shown declining durability with finishes in his last three fights. He has been stopped in five of his last six losses.
Fighting Styles
Luque fights with pressure boxing and heavy calf kicks. His dangerous front-headlock series creates submission threats. He causes cut damage with elbows against seasoned veterans.
The Brazilian’s defensive grappling neutralizes transition phases. His experience in main-event rounds and proven cardio set him apart in longer fights. He makes mid-fight adjustments against top-tier opposition.
Alvarez owns one of the UFC’s most efficient finishing games. His brabo and guillotine chokes are quick and polished. He does not need dominant wrestling to find submissions.
The Spanish fighter thrives when opponents shoot or press into the clinch recklessly. His striking is technical enough to force desperate entries. He strikes well with knees and snap-downs in scrambles.
Betting Trends
Alvarez is 6-0 as the betting favorite in his UFC career. His finishing rate remains perfect with all 22 wins coming by stoppage. Zero of his UFC wins have gone to decision.
Luque has been finished in his last three fights. His durability in grappling scrambles may be fading after recent submission losses. His strike absorption rate has increased in recent years.
The fight shapes up as a clash between Luque’s need to get inside and Alvarez’s ability to punish entries. Every step forward risks the long knees and front chokes Alvarez excels at. Luque’s takedown defense points to a vulnerability Alvarez can exploit.
Over three rounds, Alvarez’s length should allow him to dictate distance. Luque will be forced to crash range where scrambles favor Alvarez’s elite finishing instincts. The submission prop lines up as Alvarez’s most reliable path to victory.
If Luque can trap Alvarez near the fence, his low kicks and boxing combinations become effective. His veteran savvy and multi-phase offense could control later rounds. Fighting in front of a Brazilian crowd provides emotional fuel.
Alvarez’s confidence after consecutive knockout wins means he will press the action early. His natural size and pace at welterweight could overwhelm Luque. Rapid entries and forcing defensive lapses play to his strengths.
