TLDR
- Dustin Poirier predicts Islam Makhachev will beat Jack Della Maddalena by decision at UFC 322
- Poirier says the fight depends on Della Maddalena’s takedown defense and ability to keep the fight standing
- Makhachev moves up from lightweight to challenge welterweight champion Della Maddalena at Madison Square Garden
- Poirier fought Makhachev at UFC 302 and lost via fifth-round submission after nearly five rounds
- Poirier believes Makhachev’s constant takedown threats will prevent Della Maddalena from landing his best strikes
Dustin Poirier has shared his prediction for the UFC 322 main event between welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena and former lightweight champion Islam Makhachev. The fight takes place Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York.
Poirier has unique insight into this matchup. He spent nearly five full rounds fighting Makhachev at UFC 302 in June 2024. The bout was a Fight of the Year candidate before Makhachev secured a fifth-round submission victory.
“The Diamond” will attend the event in person with Bud Light. He plans to watch as Makhachev attempts to become a two-division UFC champion.
Della Maddalena captured the welterweight title with a decision win over Belal Muhammad at UFC 315 in May. The Australian fighter enters the bout with an 18-fight win streak. He holds an 8-0 record inside the UFC octagon.
Makhachev vacated the lightweight title to move up to welterweight. The 34-year-old has won 15 consecutive fights. His most recent victory came against Renato Moicano at UFC 311 in January.
Poirier believes the outcome depends entirely on one factor. Della Maddalena must defend takedowns and keep the fight standing.
“It’s all going to come down to the takedown defense of JDM,” Poirier told MMA Fighting. “If he can get back up to his feet, if he can use the fence, or stay off the fence, use his boxing, I think he definitely could give Islam a lot of troubles in the center of the octagon.”
The Takedown Threat
Poirier explained how Makhachev’s grappling threat affects striking exchanges. The constant possibility of a takedown changes everything.
“Islam made me a worse striker because I couldn’t plant my feet to throw off combinations,” Poirier said. He had to worry about weight distribution on his legs at all times. Missing a power shot meant exposing his legs to a takedown attempt.
The former interim champion believes Della Maddalena faces the same challenge. The 29-year-old Australian possesses hand speed and power. However, using those tools becomes difficult when defending takedowns.
“Jack’s an incredible athlete, a big puncher, good hand-speed,” Poirier stated. “He has all the tools to upset Islam, it’s just can he find that rhythm where his striking and his takedown defense are kind of balanced.”
Poirier doubts Makhachev will engage in pure striking exchanges. The Russian fighter will keep touching the legs and threatening takedowns. This strategy prevents opponents from setting their feet and unleashing combinations.
Size Not a Factor
Many observers question whether Makhachev can handle the size difference at welterweight. Poirier dismisses these concerns completely.
Dustin Poirier says Islam Makhachev won’t be undersized at all against Jack Della Maddalena at #UFC322 this weekend:
"He's a guy who’s been holding his body back from naturally being bigger."
(🎥: @mikeHeck_JR) pic.twitter.com/7Qyf7AtXgh
— MMA Fighting (@MMAFighting) November 10, 2025
“Islam is not a small man,” Poirier explained. “He’s not short. He’s big. He’s a big guy.”
The Louisiana native believes Makhachev cut significant weight to compete at lightweight. Moving to welterweight allows him to fight at a more natural size. He won’t look like a small lightweight moving up a division.
“He’s going to fill into this weight class, and he’s not going to look like a lightweight moving up to welterweight,” Poirier said. “He’s going to look like a solid welterweight in a title fight.”
Poirier thinks size won’t determine the fight outcome. Skills and strategy will decide the winner.
The analyst predicts Makhachev cannot win by pure kickboxing. “He’s going to lose if he does that,” Poirier stated. Makhachev must mix in grappling attempts to keep Della Maddalena guessing.
If Makhachev keeps Della Maddalena thinking about takedowns throughout five rounds, Poirier sees a decision victory. “I would think Islam by decision,” he said. “But if Jack does win, I’m not going to be totally blown away if he lands a shot that hurts Islam.”
Poirier acknowledges Della Maddalena could catch Makhachev with a strike. A submission win by either fighter would surprise him. His final prediction remains Makhachev by decision based on his experience fighting the former lightweight champion at UFC 302.
