UFC Vegas 114: Amanda Lemos vs. Gillian Robertson — Fight Odds, Predictions & Betting Lines

TLDR

• Gillian Robertson is the -200 favorite; Amanda Lemos is the +165 underdog
• Robertson is on a four-fight win streak; Lemos lost her last bout to Tatiana Suarez by decision
• Robertson is a BJJ black belt with nine submission wins in her UFC career
• Lemos is the stronger striker but has lost twice by submission in the UFC
• Most analysts lean toward Robertson, with some backing a finish before the judges score it

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UFC Vegas 114: Lemos vs. Robertson — Odds Breakdown and What to Expect

Amanda Lemos and Gillian Robertson meet in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 114 on Saturday, March 15. The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas in the women’s strawweight division.

Robertson enters as the -200 favorite across most major sportsbooks. Lemos is listed at +165. The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds, with the under priced at +135.

Lemos is 15-5-1 overall and has gone 9-5 in the UFC since 2017. She is ranked No. 5 in the strawweight division. Her last fight was a unanimous decision loss to No. 1-ranked Tatiana Suarez.

She stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach. Lemos is known for her punching power and body kicks, landing around 55% of her strikes. She has eight KO/TKO wins in her career.

Robertson is 16-8 overall and has gone 13-6 in the UFC. She is ranked No. 8 in the division. She comes in on a four-fight winning streak, with her most recent win a TKO over Marina Rodriguez in round two.

She stands 5-foot-5 with a 63-inch reach. Robertson is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has nine submission victories. She averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes.

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The Striker vs. Grappler Matchup

This fight breaks down as a classic striker versus grappler contest. Lemos wants to keep it standing and use her power and accuracy. Robertson wants to close distance, get to the ground, and work her submission game.

Lemos has a 64% takedown defense rate. However, she has been submitted twice in her UFC career, which is a concern against Robertson. Robertson has been finishing fights in new ways recently, adding punches from back control to her submission threat.

Robertson’s Recent Form Sets Her Apart

Robertson has won six of her last seven fights. She has submitted opponents and finished others with ground-and-pound. Her last five opponents included Marina Rodriguez, Luana Pinheiro, and Michelle Waterson-Gomez.

Lemos has gone 3-3 over her last six fights. She beat Mackenzie Dern and Iasmin Lucindo but lost to Zhang Weili, Virna Jandiroba, and Tatiana Suarez. She initially withdrew from this fight before re-entering.

Robertson averages 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Her takedown rate and ground control have been consistent across her recent fights. She has also been competing in grappling tournaments outside the UFC to stay sharp.

Lemos lands 2.75 significant strikes per minute and is accurate from range. Her body kick game is designed to slow down charging opponents. She will need that to keep Robertson from getting in close.

Robertson’s striking defense sits at 56%. She can be caught, but she tends to use level changes to avoid clean strikes and get into clinch range. The smaller UFC Apex cage may work in her favor for that approach.

Lemos is 38 years old; Robertson is 30. Both fighters have finishing rates above 70%.

The last available odds have Robertson at -200 and Lemos at +165 on DraftKings and BetMGM.