TLDR
- Islam Makhachev (-285) challenges welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena (+230) in the main event at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Makhachev vacated his lightweight title after four defenses to move up and pursue a second championship in a different weight class
- Della Maddalena makes his first title defense after winning the belt in May with a decision victory over Belal Muhammad
- Zhang Weili moves up from strawweight to challenge flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main event, with both fighters looking to become two-division champions
- The main card features three additional welterweight matchups that could reshape the division’s rankings
UFC 322 Main Event Odds
- Jack Della Maddalena (+230) vs. Islam Makhachev (-285)
- Valentina Shevchenko (-135) vs. Zhang Weili (+115)
- Sean Brady (-140) vs. Michael Morales (+110)
- Carlos Prates (-190) vs. Leon Edwards (+145)
- Benoit Saint Denis (-190) vs. Beneil Dariush (+150)
Prelims:
- Bo Nickal -205 vs. Rodolfo Vieira +170, middleweights
- Gregory Rodrigues -185 vs. Roman Kopylov +154, middleweights
- Erin Blanchfield -258 vs. Tracy Cortez +210, women’s flyweights
- Malcolm Wellmaker -590 vs. Cody Haddon +440, featherweights
Early Prelims:
- Kyle Daukaus -425 vs. Gerald Meerschaert +330, middleweights
- Pat Sabatini -130 vs. Chepe Mariscal +110, featherweights
- Fatima Kline -520 vs. Angela Hill +390, women’s strawweights
- Baisangur Susurkaev -1050 vs. Eric McConico +675, middleweights
- Matheus Camilo -162 vs. Viacheslav Borshchev +134, lightweights
Islam Makhachev returns to the octagon Saturday night seeking to make history. The former lightweight champion vacated his belt to move up to welterweight for a shot at Jack Della Maddalena’s title. A victory would make him one of the few fighters to hold two UFC championships simultaneously.
Makhachev comes into the fight with a 27-1 record. His only loss came in 2015 when Adriano Martins caught him with a knockout. Since then, he has won 14 straight fights.
His lightweight title reign included four successful defenses. He beat Charles Oliveira to win the belt in 2022. He then defended against Alexander Volkanovski twice, Dustin Poirier, and Renato Moicano.
Della Maddalena captured the welterweight title in May. He defeated Belal Muhammad by decision in a performance that showcased improved takedown defense. The Australian champion entered UFC with an 18-2 record and has remained undefeated through eight promotional fights.
The champion’s striking statistics are impressive. He lands 6.84 strikes per minute with 52% accuracy. His defense rate sits at 64%, meaning he avoids most incoming strikes while maintaining high output.
ALL EYES ON MSG TONIGHT 🗽
Watch #VeChain #UFC322 LIVE on @ESPN PPV at 10pmET!
[ B2YB @HSpecialSurgery ] pic.twitter.com/YcN9K9Iaym
— UFC (@ufc) November 15, 2025
Betting Props, Parlays and Picks
Method of Victory Props
The UFC 322 betting market offers numerous prop bets beyond straight moneyline wagers. Method of victory props allow bettors to predict how fights will end.
Popular method of victory bets include:
- Makhachev by submission – appealing odds given his 18 career stoppages
- Della Maddalena by decision – value at plus odds with his striking defense
- Prates by knockout – matches his aggressive finishing style
- Shevchenko by decision – reflects her technical approach
According to MMA Mania’s odds breakdown, Makhachev has finished opponents throughout all rounds of his fights. His submission threat remains constant whether the fight is in round one or round five.
Round Betting and Distance Props
Round props provide another betting avenue for the main event. Bettors can wager on which specific round a fight ends. The distance prop asks whether fights go the full scheduled rounds.
Key distance bets:
- Main event over 3.5 rounds at -135
- Main event under 3.5 rounds at +105
- Co-main event over 4.5 rounds at -270
- Brady-Morales over 2.5 rounds at better value than straight moneyline
Della Maddalena by decision offers value at plus odds. His striking defense and improved wrestling make a full five rounds possible. CBS Sports experts predict this could be a competitive fight that extends deep into championship rounds.
Popular Parlay Combinations
Parlay betting combines multiple selections for increased payouts. A popular option pairs Makhachev moneyline with over 3.5 rounds at around even money. This assumes Makhachev wins but the fight remains competitive.
Two-Fight Parlays:
- Shevchenko by decision + Makhachev moneyline (around +100)
- Shevchenko to win + over 3.5 rounds (+100)
- Zhang to win + over 3.5 rounds (+150)
Three-Fight Parlays:
- Makhachev + Shevchenko + Brady moneylines (around +150)
- Pat Sabatini + Shevchenko by decision + Makhachev (+434)
Covers.com’s betting analysts recommend the three-fight parlay as all three fighters enter as favorites in their respective matchups. The combined odds provide solid value for a relatively safe bet.
Same-Game Parlay Options
Same-game parlays allow multiple bets within one fight. Bettors can combine Makhachev to win with under 4.5 rounds. This reflects expectations of a late finish or decision victory.
The Brady-Morales fight offers a compelling prop. Brady to win by decision sits at favorable odds given his wrestling-heavy style. He has gone to decisions in his last three victories.
Best same-game parlays:
- Makhachev to win + fight goes over 3.5 rounds
- Brady by decision + fight goes distance
- Prates by knockout + under 2.5 rounds
Point Spread Betting
Point spread betting provides insurance on close fights. Taking Della Maddalena at +5.5 covers scenarios where he loses a competitive decision. The champion only needs to avoid a dominant loss.
Key Point Spreads:
- Della Maddalena +5.5 at +110
- Makhachev -5.5 at -150
- Zhang +5.5 at -230
MMA Mania’s prop analysis notes that Della Maddalena’s improved takedown defense against Belal Muhammad makes the +5.5 spread attractive. He stuffed most takedown attempts in that fight.
Either-Or Props
Edwards to win by decision or Prates by knockout presents an interesting either-or prop. This bet covers both likely outcomes based on each fighter’s strengths. The odds sit at -185.
For the Saint Denis-Dariush fight, the over 1.5 rounds at -160 offers better value than the Saint Denis moneyline. Both fighters are durable despite their finishing abilities. A second or third round conclusion seems likely.
Advanced Prop Bets
The Shevchenko-Zhang point spread of +5.5 for Zhang at -230 reflects low finish expectations. Both fighters have excellent defensive skills. A competitive decision appears most probable.
Round group betting allows wagers on finish timeframes:
- Makhachev in rounds 3-5 for late submission value
- Prates in round 1 for early knockout odds
- Brady rounds 2-3 for grinding decision finish
According to CBS Sports predictions, Makhachev’s technical advantages should prove to be the difference in later rounds. His conditioning at welterweight remains the biggest question mark.
Performance Bonus Correlations
Performance bonuses often correlate with finish methods. Prates by knockout in round one offers long odds but matches his aggressive fighting style. He typically seeks early finishes.
Total rounds props cover the entire card. Betting over on total main card finishes accounts for multiple skilled grapplers and heavy hitters. The under assumes several decisions reach scorecards.
Covers.com analysts suggest focusing on individual fight props rather than card-wide totals. The skill level at UFC 322 makes predicting overall finish rates difficult.
Understanding the Main Event Matchup
Makhachev faces questions about his size at welterweight. He spent his entire career at 155 pounds before this move. Photos show he has bulked up for the weight change.
The stylistic matchup favors different fighters in different areas. Della Maddalena holds advantages in pure striking exchanges. He has three inches of reach and specializes in combination punching.
Makhachev’s wrestling presents the biggest challenge for the champion. He averages 3.62 takedowns per 15 minutes with 54% accuracy. His ground control and submission skills are elite.
All Angles 👁️ 👁️ #UFC322 @Vechainofficial
Jack Della Maddalena vs Islam Makhachev goes down TONIGHT! pic.twitter.com/odSW6aVzao
— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) November 15, 2025
The champion showed improved wrestling defense against Muhammad. He stuffed most takedown attempts and avoided extended periods on his back. Muhammad trains with Makhachev’s team, which may have given Della Maddalena insights into their approach.
Makhachev lands 2.63 strikes per minute with 58% accuracy. His striking defense sits at 61%. These numbers reflect his grappling-heavy approach where opponents struggle to land clean shots.
Co-Main Event Analysis
Zhang Weili vacated her strawweight title to challenge Shevchenko. The Chinese fighter defended her belt three times in her second reign as champion. Her most recent victory came against Tatiana Suarez in a dominant five-round performance.
Shevchenko reclaimed her flyweight title from Alexa Grasso. She lost the belt in 2023 with a submission loss. A draw followed in their rematch before Shevchenko won the trilogy fight decisively.
The size difference factors heavily into this matchup. Both fighters stand at similar heights but Shevchenko has three inches of reach. She never looked undersized when she competed at bantamweight.
Zhang’s fighting style relies on pressure and aggression. She lands 5.15 strikes per minute, well above Shevchenko’s 3.14. Her accuracy sits at 53% with 54% defense.
Welterweight Division Implications
Sean Brady enters as the second-ranked welterweight contender. He was close to a title shot before losing to Muhammad in 2022. Three straight wins have rebuilt his momentum.
His most recent victory came against Leon Edwards in March. Brady submitted the former champion after controlling him with wrestling. He also holds wins over Gilbert Burns and Kelvin Gastelum.
Michael Morales brings an undefeated record to the octagon. The Ecuadorian fighter has finished four opponents since joining UFC in 2021. His knockout of Burns in May earned Performance of the Night honors.
The matchup tests Morales’ takedown defense against Brady’s wrestling. Morales has stuffed 89% of takedown attempts in his career. Those numbers came mostly against opponents with lower wrestling credentials than Brady.
Edwards returns after back-to-back losses. Brady submitted him in March after Muhammad dominated him to take the title in 2024. The former champion held the belt for over two years.
Carlos Prates presents a dangerous test with his striking power. He knocked out Geoff Neal with a spinning back elbow in August. His only UFC loss came against Ian Machado Garry in a technical striking battle.
Sean Brady vs. Michael Morales is a guaranteed firefight! 🔥#UFC322 | LIVE on TNT Sports & discovery+ pic.twitter.com/uLeSSapDrM
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) November 14, 2025
Betting Strategies and Value Picks
The main event point spread offers Della Maddalena at +5.5 for +110. This accounts for the possibility of a competitive fight where the champion wins rounds on his feet. Makhachev sits at -5.5 for -150.
The round total stands at 3.5 with the over at -135 and under at +105. Experts expect a competitive fight that extends into championship rounds. Both fighters have the skills to avoid early finishes.
For the co-main event, the point spread favors Zhang at +5.5 for -230. The odds reflect low expectations for a Shevchenko finish. The round total of 4.5 has the over at -270 and under at +200.
Parlay options provide increased value when combining multiple picks. Shevchenko to win by decision with Makhachev moneyline creates odds around +100. These bets assume both favorites win but need all rounds.
The Brady-Morales fight has a round total of 2.5. The over suggests a decision outcome while the under indicates a finish. Brady’s wrestling-heavy approach typically leads to decisions when opponents survive early rounds.
Fight Time Information
UFC 322 takes place Saturday, November 15, 2025 at Madison Square Garden in New York City. The main card starts at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT. International viewers can watch at 3:00 AM GMT Sunday and 2:00 PM AEDT Sunday in Australia.
Preliminary fights begin at 8:00 PM ET / 5:00 PM PT. Early prelims start at 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT. The event will be available on pay-per-view.
