Light heavyweights Ovince Saint Preux and Philipe Lins are both looking to put together a winning streak against each other at UFC Vegas 69.
The two were initially slated to fight each other twice already, with one bout having been scheduled for November of 2021 and another fight falling off in December of 2022. Since then, the two have recovered from two-fight losing streaks, with Saint Preux scoring a split decision win over the legendary Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Lins winning a unanimous decision against Marcin Prachnio.
Although they have both had fairly rocky careers, both fighters are extremely dangerous and should not be taken lightly by their opponents, with Saint Preux holding a 76% finish rate and Lins having an 80% finish rate respectively.
Betting Odds
Following his dicey win against Shogun at UFC 274, Ovince Saint Preux enters this bout as a slight underdog.
- Ovince Saint Preux: +175
- Philipe Lins: -205
Fight Breakdown
The southpaw in Saint Preux comes into this bout with a 2-inch reach advantage and one-inch height advantage against his orthodox counterpart in Philipe Lins, however, he is also two years Lins’ senior and reaching the tail end of his career at 39 years old. As well as this, although his last loss was over 1.5 years ago, Saint Preux has recently been knocked out twice in his last three bouts, with one coming from Tanner Boser and the other from current light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill.
Although not specializing in specific fields of combat, both of these athletes are very well-rounded in various aspects of their game. Both are fairly capable on the feet despite their underwhelming striking styles while being very adept grapplers. Although Lins is yet to score a finish in the UFC, he has his fair share of submissions and K.O. victories as he rose through Bellator and the PFL. He showcased great forward pressure and a solid gas tank in his last bout against Marcin Prachnio, rallying back from what clearly was a lost first round and using his clinch-grappling to land heavy shots and wear out his opponent. This is a strategy that has effectively been used against Saint Preux in the past by Nikita Krylov and Dominick Reyes, who both reversed Saint Preux into the fence and either used the advantage to steal rounds or take him down to secure a submission.
On the ground, or at least on top, Saint Preux is extremely dangerous, with extremely solid ground-and-pound and a very dangerous submission game. Most of the threat comes from Saint Preux’s heavy top pressure, as could be seen from the four wins via von flue choke on his record. This pressure, more often than not, wears out his opponents and steals rounds from them, however, it is almost equally as taxing on Saint Preux himself, as much of the pressure comes from his upper body strength which weakens his standup into the next rounds. This could be seen in his record when it comes to fights that go the distance (6-9).
When it comes to their striking, neither fighter has a heavy advantage to write home about, with both using their wrestle-boxing styles to land heavy shots because of the threat of the takedown rather than setting up combinations through jabs and diverse strikes. Saint Preux, however, seems to have fairly sharp counters early in his fights before he begins to gas out, with his overhand left and counter left hook always being extremely dangerous weapons at his disposal, which could hinder the orthodox stance that Lins uses if he’s not privy to such counters. Neither fighter has particularly refined kicks or weapons aside from their powerful rear hands, which could turn the stand-up aspects of this fight into slow burns that lead to grinding clinch exchanges.
Prediction and Betting Guide
Overall, the deciding factor of this fight will come down to who could score the first takedown, as neither fighter is particularly good off of their back. Even if Saint Preux does shoot first and get Lins to the ground, however, unless he gets some sort of submission or damages him with heavy ground-and-pound, which albeit is a fairly likely scenario, I don’t see Lins succumbing to the heavy pressure of Saint Preux simply given his well-tested gas tank. I think that, aside from the strength and power, Lins is a much more well-rounded fighter with much more to lose if he can’t secure a win, so I wouldn’t doubt that he tires Saint Preux out and wins a decision or even scores his first stoppage in the UFC against a fighter who seems to be going over the hill and well past his prime.
Bet: Philipe Lins by decision (+190)