Manuel Torres vs. Trey Ogden prediction | UFC on ESPN 43
Manuel “El Loco” Torres, 27, is a 13-2 professional fighter out of Entram Gym in Mexico. He earned a UFC contract through Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. That fight marked his 8th fight in a row to end in the 1st round. Torres continued that trend in his debut with a first-round knockout back in May of 2022. Of his 15 professional fights, only one has gone the distance.
Trey “Samurai Ghost” Ogden, 33, is 16-5 overall with 11 submission wins and 3 submission losses. In the UFC, Ogden dropped his debut via split decision but rebounded back with a unanimous decision win in September of 2022.
Betting Odds
Torres opened as a 2:1 favorite but the money coming in on Ogden has narrowed the odds.
Manuel Torres is the favorite to win the fight with odds of -145 while Trey Ogden has odds of +120 to win the fight according to MyBookie. This means that if you bet $145 on Torres and he wins, you will win $100. If you bet $100 on Ogden and he wins, you will win $120.
Fight Breakdown
When listening to a podcast or a book on tape at 1.5x speed, you can get through it quicker; but, if you lose focus for a few seconds, you might miss something important. That’s how Torres fights in the octagon: on 1.5x speed.
He has hyperactive movement and looks for flash finishes as soon as the ref yells “fight!” But, because of his aggression, if he has even a momentary lapse in focus, he is in danger of a fight-ending mistake.
Thus far, Torres’ hyper style has proven successful, both through his record and his fanfare. He tends to rush forward, immediately, almost running across the canvas, and throw everything he has with everything he has. Blitzing his opponents early has resulted in 14 of his 15 fights ending in the first round, all but 2 have been victories.
When he strikes, Torres is a brawler through and through. He swings from the hip, throws almost exclusively hooks, and looks to knock off the head of his opponent. When he connects, he connects with power and can shut the lights out quickly.
Offensively, Torres’ aggression, strange hyper movement, and power cannot be understated. Unbelievably, UFCStats has him recorded at averaging 10.5 significant strikes landed per minute. That is impressive and unsustainable at this level.
Defensively, Torres has gaping holes. He rushes forward with such offense that his striking defense is nonexistent, his grappling defense is rooted in strength and explosion rather than technique, and his cardio is highly questionable. Torres’ typical path to victory, as evident by his record, is to blitz and brawl until someone drops.
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Ogden is the yin to Torres’ yang. He is a patient range counter striker who primarily uses a probing kicking game to keep distance and feel his opponents out. Once he gets into a rhythm, Ogden will look to land more straight shots with his hands. However, his varied kicking game is still his primary striking attack.
As the fight progresses, Ogden methodically looks to close distance so he can look to grapple. He has a dangerous submission game, primarily centered around chokes, but struggles to wrestle into position. If an opponent engages in the clinch or even looks to take Ogden down, he can counter grapple well, reverse position, and find a submission win.
However, against fighters who are more patient and careful, Ogden does not have the wrestling to get the fight to the mat himself. Both his striking and grappling are well-schooled and creative; but, he’s more of a fighter who capitalizes on the mistakes of his opponents rather than forcing those mistakes himself.
Prediction and Betting Guide
This fight should be one-sided one way or the other. If Torres can get inside of Ogden’s kicking game without getting too close to worry about his grappling, it should result in another Torres early finish.
Ogden is a bit of a slow starter and his volume-kicking game should give Torres plenty of opportunities early to pressure and crack. However, if Torres makes a mistake and tries to grapple or if Ogden is able to survive the blitz and force a second round, Torres is in trouble.
Ogden has much better cardio and technique, both on the feet and on the mat. Betting this fight is tricky. I like Torres’ aggression and power in round 1 but doubt he’ll win outside of the first five minutes.
Meanwhile, Ogden should be able to capitalize on a depleted opponent in rounds 2 and 3 for a submission win. But, he could continue to play it safe and stick’n move for 15 minutes.
Because of the variety of outcomes, I’m only looking to make a bet at plus money. That has me landing on Torres to win in round 1 at +250. I also like u2.5 rounds but don’t like the -180 price tag since Ogden’s patience could be his path to victory.
Best Bet: Manuel Torres to win in round 1 +250
