Cody Durden vs. Charles Johnson prediction | UFC Fight Night 223
Cody Durden will meet Charles Johnson in the center of the UFC Apex this Saturday night.
Durden, who is building an impressive resume and has already competed against Muhammad Mokaev, went to a draw with Chris Gutierrez and defeated Aori Qileng within his 3-2-1 UFC record.
His opponent, Charles “InnerG” Johnson shares a mutual opponent in Mokaev who defeated Johnson in his UFC debut. However, since then, Johnson has brought himself much more success going 2-1 against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, and Jimmy Flick, and then losing to Ode Osbourne last February.
Betting Odds
Oddsmakers deem Durden the underdog, meaning that each $100 spent on him is set to return a profit of $111 in victory.
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Fight Breakdown
Cody Durden strikes in a specific rhyme that is difficult to predict and read. He has very good timing, especially on his basic jab and cross, and often times them as a jump-forward entry into his takedowns. Whatever he decides to throw, it is often loaded with a big burst forward with his weight behind it, which is why Durden has such a high finish rate in the first round when the two men are fresh and his opponent is least likely to have any reads on Durden. He also mixes in his low kicks nicely.
Typically Durden will either throw himself fully into a body lock or double leg and sort of tackle his opponent full thrust. The drawback to this is with better grapplers, his use of sheer force has thrown his way off balance when his opponent is able to defend, this approach is a double-edged sword that either has powerful success or terrible failure. On the other hand, Durden will feint with the hands and drop to a single leg before driving to the fence, which although has a less dramatic impact allows him to slowly build his control. On top Durden buries his head into the chin of his opponent, going chest to chest and offering no space, he will work much more patiently here as well as on the back.
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Charles Johnson is an anomaly and kind of a wildman. He has been introduced as a ninjutsu-style fighter, and his haircut speaks for itself, however, the same unusualness and creativity can be seen in his fighting style. He has good footwork and very good head movement, his reactions, and timing to slip and weave through shots are high-level. This also causes him to lean heavily on each leg as he moves though, meaning he has been more one to taking body shots in the past. He typically sticks and moves with his boxing and front kick knowing that he would rather play the long game. As a former Steeple chase champion, few in the division may have the cardio confidence of Johnson, and we often see this in motion when knowing they near the bell he pours on immense pressure.
Johnson has a very good guillotine threat if he is taken down as well as good sweeps but it will be very difficult to take him there because on the fence his takedown defense is quite solid.
Prediction and Betting Guide
On the feet, I think that Charles Johnson is uniquely qualified to dampen the first-round storm of Durden. I think his ability to keep a high work rate without fear of gassing will allow him to start strong, and his awkward style will also cause some hesitancy in Durden. It would be rare for Johnson to stand in front of Durden still enough for many blast double attempts so it’s more likely we see wall wrestling between the two, where Durden still has the advantage but not so much that outweighs the difference in skill at range. I think by the third round, Johnson is still the fresher fighter and should be able to bag at least two of the three rounds.
Best Bet: Charles Johnson to win (-142)
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