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Prediction: Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic | UFC Fight Night 206

Prediction: Omar Morales vs. Uros Medic | UFC Fight Night 206

Uros Medic

Omar “Venezuelan Fighter” Morales, 36, is 11-2 as a professional. Thus far, in the UFC, Morales is 3-2 with 3 decision wins following his TKO victory on DWCS in 2019. Uros “The Doctor” Medic, 29, is also a DWCS alum. Professionally, Medic is 7-1 with all 8 fights ending in under 6 minutes. In the UFC, Medic is 1-1 with a first-round knockout win and first-round submission loss.

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Odds

Morales opened as a short favorite and has held steady throughout the week.

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Breakdown

Despite having a 3-2 record, Morales has been the betting favorite in all 5 of his UFC fights. This speaks to his solid skillset but difficulties implementing his own game plan. Skill-wise, Morales has a dangerous kicking game. He can touch and damage the calf and midsection of his opponent with ease. His boxing lacks some fundamentals and technique though; often Morales swings wide hooks and disregards defense, but his athleticism allows for his wide shots to land. On the mat, “Venezuelan Fighter” can reverse position and find success, both in ground control and submissions. Altogether, Morales is a well-rounded fighter with the x-factor of his devastating kicking game. Despite having a complete game, he struggles to combine his game completely. While striking, Morales often fights in single spurts. He’ll move forward, land kicks, and force his opponent into a vulnerable place, then, Morales will stop and reset rather than transition to a boxing approach and take advantage of his kicking work. After he resets, he’ll then look to move forward again and find success. This start-stop approach to fighting allows hurt opponents to recover, lowers Morales’ volume, and can allow an adept striker the opportunity to counter Morales’ attacks. If he can tether his game together, Morales will likely find more success and return profit as the betting favorite more often.

Medic fights at 100mph all the time. 7 of his 8 fights have ended in the first round and the only outlier ended in :51 of round 2. From the opening salvo, Medic moves forward with the intention of ending the fight. He typically takes the center of the octagon and looks to light up his opponent with a barrage of kicks and punches. He is a high-level kickboxer with crisp and varied combinations. Even though Medic fights with pure aggression, he still fights intelligently. His combinations are setup with prodding shots or feints. Then, once he hurts his opponent, he attacks like a shark to chum. Medic has the offensive repertoire and killer instinct to end fights emphatically and quickly. Medic’s issue, and the reason for his most recent loss, is his response to being hit. Defensively Medic is sound; but, when an opponent can counter and crack him, “The Doctor” can look out of his element. Once hit cleanly, Medic can be easily pushed back and taken down. Then, once on the mat, Medic transitions from a shark to chum into a fish out of water. He’ll need to sure up his response to counter shots and his ground game as Medic looks to climb in the division.

Prediction

If Morales can force a clinch or even ground fight that nullifies Medic’s range attacks and power, he can find a path to victory. However, if Morales looks to fight a kickboxing match, as he often does, I think Medic has the edge in technique and power. So long as Medic doesn’t overcommit or gas out, I like him to get back in the win column.

Prediction: Medic to win

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