TLDR
- Alex Perez (+160/+172) faces Asu Almabayev (-192/-225) at UFC Qatar on November 22nd in a flyweight top-10 matchup
- Perez holds striking advantages with 4.19 significant strikes per minute and 77% takedown defense
- Almabayev is the betting favorite with 4.66 takedowns per fight and superior defensive metrics at 1.75 strikes absorbed per minute
- Perez returns after a year-long layoff from a knee injury sustained against Tatsuro Taira
- Most predictions favor Almabayev by unanimous decision with the fight expected to go the distance
Main Event Odds
Arman Tsarukyan (-650) vs. Dan Hooker (+470)
Full Fight Card Odds
- Belal Muhammad (+220) vs. Ian Machado Garry (-270)
- Volkan Oezdemir (-225) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+185)
- Jack Hermansson (+205) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-135) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+114)
- Tagir Ulanbekov (-218) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+180)
- Bogdan Grad (+210) vs. Luke Riley (-258)
- Nicolas Dalby (+275) vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (-345)
- Alex Perez (+180) vs. Asu Almabayev (-218)
- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1650) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+950)
- Bekzat Almakhan (+114) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-135)
- Ismael Naurdiev (-142) vs. Ryan Loder (+120)
- Nurullo Aliev (-290) vs. Shem Rock (+235)
- Marek Bujlo (+170) vs. Denzel Freeman (-213)
Fight Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT / 9 p.m. local time in Qatar Prelims: 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+
Alex Perez will face Asu Almabayev in a flyweight division bout at UFC Qatar on November 22nd. The matchup features the No. 7 ranked Perez against the No. 8 ranked Almabayev in a competitive top-10 clash.
Perez brings a 25-9 record into the octagon. The California fighter has gone 7-5 in the UFC since 2017. He returns after more than a year away from competition following a knee injury against Tatsuro Taira in his last fight.
The 5-foot-6 fighter has faced top-level competition throughout his recent career. Perez is 1-4 in his last five fights, with all four losses coming against current or former champions. His last appearance was in 2023 when he suffered a TKO loss due to the knee injury.
Perez maintains strong striking statistics with 4.19 significant strikes landed per minute. His striking accuracy sits at 46% while his striking defense is 58%. The fighter also possesses a 77% takedown defense rate, which will be tested against Almabayev’s wrestling approach.
Almabayev enters with a 22-3 record and has gone 5-1 in the UFC since 2023. The Kazakhstan fighter stands 5-foot-4 with a 65-inch reach. His only promotional loss came against Manel Kape before rebounding with a unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa.
The betting favorite has won four of his six UFC fights by unanimous decision. Almabayev lands significant strikes at 2.16 per minute with 54% accuracy. He absorbs only 1.75 strikes per minute, showing strong defensive awareness.
Wrestling vs Striking Dynamic
Almabayev’s game centers on grappling control with 4.66 takedowns attempted per fight. He lands 43% of his takedown attempts and averages 1.5 submission attempts per fight. His wrestling creates pressure that controls fight tempo and drains opponents over three rounds.
His takedown defense stands at 50%, which presents a potential vulnerability. However, his ability to control position on the ground has proven effective throughout his UFC run. The fighter has demonstrated world-class grappling skills against multiple opponents.
Perez must rely on his striking volume and takedown defense to succeed. He lands nearly double the significant strikes per minute compared to Almabayev. His 77% takedown defense provides a strong foundation to keep the fight standing.
The key question centers on whether Perez’s knee has fully recovered. His ability to plant and move explosively will determine his effectiveness in both striking and defending takedowns. The fighter has been sidelined for over a year dealing with the injury.
Perez also averages 2.04 takedowns per fight at 46% accuracy. He adds 0.8 submission attempts per fight, showing he can compete in grappling exchanges. His well-rounded skill set gives him multiple paths to victory if healthy.
Fight Analysis and Predictions
Both fighters enter seeking to establish themselves as legitimate contenders. Perez has the experience facing elite competition, including a title challenge against Deiveson Figueiredo in 2020. Almabayev faces the toughest test of his career against a proven veteran.
Perez absorbs 3.20 strikes per minute compared to Almabayev’s 1.75. This defensive gap could prove decisive over three rounds. Almabayev’s ability to avoid damage while maintaining offensive pressure has been a consistent pattern.
Betting markets favor Almabayev across multiple sportsbooks. The -192 to -225 lines reflect confidence in his wrestling dominance. Perez’s underdog status at +160 to +172 suggests oddsmakers question his ability to keep the fight standing.
The over/under line at 2.5 rounds shows expectations for a decision finish. Both fighters have proven durability throughout their careers. The -168 odds on the fight going the distance indicate this is the most likely outcome.
The fight takes place at UFC Qatar with coverage available through standard UFC broadcast partners. Specific broadcast times will vary by region and timezone. Fans can check local listings for exact start times in their area.
