TLDR
- Rafael Fiziev moved to +100 underdog while Mauricio Ruffy is favored at -125 at bet365 for their UFC 325 lightweight bout
- Fiziev (13-4) ended a three-fight losing streak with a decision win over Ignacio Bahamondes in June 2025
- Ruffy (12-2) suffered his first UFC loss via second-round submission to Benoit Saint-Denis in September 2025
- The fight takes place at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia on January 31, 2026 (February 1 local time)
- Fiziev brings elite Muay Thai credentials while Ruffy owns explosive knockout power with 11 of 12 wins by knockout
UFC 325 Main Event Odds
Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes (Featherweight Championship)
- Alexander Volkanovski: TBD
- Diego Lopes: TBD
All UFC 325 Fight Odds
Main Card (9:30 p.m. ET)
Prelims (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana (Heavyweight)
- Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage (Middleweight)
- Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney (Middleweight)
- Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott (Welterweight)
Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET)
- Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha (Featherweight)
- Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan (Lightweight)
- Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay (Featherweight)
- Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui (Bantamweight)
- Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar (Flyweight)
Fight Time Information
Saturday, January 31, 2026
- Main Card Start: 9:30 p.m. ET / 6:30 p.m. PT / 1:30 a.m. GMT (Feb 1)
- Salkilld vs Mullarkey Walk Time: Approximately 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia
- Broadcast: Paramount+
Here's what Rafael Fiziev told Mauricio Ruffy during their face-off pic.twitter.com/ii5UtA6dkF
— Best MMA Moments (@XcellentMMA) January 30, 2026
Rafael Fiziev and Mauricio Ruffy will meet in a three-round lightweight bout at UFC 325 in Sydney. The betting lines have shifted from pick’em odds to favor Ruffy at -125, with Fiziev now at +100.
Fiziev holds a record of 13-4 in MMA with a 7-4 UFC record. The 32-year-old returned to the win column in June 2025 with a unanimous decision victory over Ignacio Bahamondes. That win ended a three-fight losing streak that included two competitive decisions against Justin Gaethje and an injury-shortened main event against Mateusz Gamrot.
The Muay Thai specialist from Kazakhstan carries a 39-8 professional record in Muay Thai. He has competed against Lumpinee Stadium champions and trained extensively at Tiger Muay Thai in Thailand. Eight of his 13 MMA victories have come by knockout.
Ruffy enters the fight with a 12-2 record and a 3-1 UFC mark. The Brazilian striker suffered his first UFC loss in September 2025 when Benoit Saint-Denis submitted him in the second round. Prior to that setback, Ruffy won his first three UFC appearances with first-round finishes of Jamie Mullarkey and King Green.
The King Green knockout earned MMA Junkie’s 2025 Knockout of the Year honors. Ruffy has finished 11 of his 12 professional wins by knockout. Only one victory has gone the distance in his career.
Contrasting Striking Styles
Fiziev practices traditional Muay Thai with a grounded, forward-moving approach. He uses explosive combinations and powerful kicks to break down opponents. His striking accuracy sits at 52% compared to the UFC lightweight average of 48%. He lands 4.77 strikes per minute while maintaining strong defensive movement.
Ruffy employs a karate and boxing mix common in modern MMA. He shows fluid movement and exceptional timing on counter punches. His side-on karate stance creates vulnerabilities to calf kicks and body shots but allows for quick entries and exits.
The matchup presents clear strategic paths for both fighters. Fiziev wants to deny boxing exchanges and attack Ruffy’s lead leg with calf kicks. His round kicks can land with devastating impact on Ruffy’s open side. The Kazakh fighter needs to box just enough to keep Ruffy honest while breaking him down with kicks.
Ruffy needs to stay mobile and use feints to confuse Fiziev’s timing. Taking angles and creating false starts can leave the Muay Thai specialist swinging at air. If Ruffy dulls Fiziev’s reactions with movement, he can enter the pocket on his terms and land powerful counters.
Experience Gap
Fiziev holds a strength-of-schedule advantage over his opponent. He has faced elite competition throughout his UFC run. Both fights against Gaethje went the distance and earned Fight of the Night bonuses. He also holds wins over Rafael dos Anjos and other ranked contenders.
Ruffy has competed against lower-ranked opposition in three of his four UFC fights. His only bout with a ranked opponent resulted in his lone UFC loss. Saint-Denis controlled the fight and secured a face crank submission in round two.
The betting public has pushed Ruffy to favoritism despite the experience gap. Heavy action moved the line from pick’em to -125 for the Brazilian. Fiziev opened as a slight favorite at -110 before moving to +100 underdog status.
Fiziev has proven his durability against the division’s hardest hitters. He absorbed heavy shots from Gaethje in two separate fights without going down. He survived five rounds with dos Anjos before landing a fifth-round knockout in 2022.
Ruffy owns one-punch knockout power that can end fights instantly. His spinning wheel kick finish of Green demonstrated his explosive abilities. However, he has not been tested against someone with Fiziev’s technical precision over 15 minutes.
Both fighters rely on speed and athleticism to create advantages. Those physical gifts will be somewhat cancelled out in this matchup. The fight comes down to which man can implement his game plan and win individual exchanges throughout three rounds.
FanDuel lists the bout as nearly even with Fiziev at -102 and Ruffy at -125. The pick’em nature of the odds reflects the unpredictability of the matchup. Both men possess the skills and power to finish the fight at any moment.
