TLDR
- Jan Blachowicz (-125 to -140) faces Bogdan Guskov (+105 to +110) at UFC 323 on December 6th in a light heavyweight clash
- Guskov has won four straight fights by finish, including a first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov
- Blachowicz, 42, has lost two straight fights but took Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev, and Carlos Ulberg to decisions
- Guskov hasn’t fought past the second round since 2019 as an amateur, raising cardio concerns
- Odds favor an early finish at -182, with the fight going the distance at +144
UFC 323 Main Event Betting Odds
Bantamweight Championship
- Merab Dvalishvili (-500) vs. Petr Yan (+340) – Over/Under: 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 / Under +280)
Complete UFC 323 Fight Card Odds
Main Card (10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT)
- Alexandre Pantoja: (-245) vs. Joshua Van: (+186) – Flyweight Championship
- Brandon Moreno: (-104) vs. Tatsuro Taira: (-122)
- Payton Talbott: (-265) vs. Henry Cejudo: (+200)
- Jan Blachowicz: (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov: (-106)
Preliminary Card
- Maycee Barber: (-172) vs. Karine Silva: (+134)
- Mansur Abdul-Malik: (-950) vs. Antonio Trocoli: (+500)
- Fares Ziam: (-160) vs. Nazim Sadykhov: (+124)
- Grant Dawson: (-235) vs. Manuel Torres: (+180)
- Chris Duncan: (-194) vs. Terrance McKinney: (+150)
- Brunno Ferreira: (-104) vs. Marvin Vettori: (-120)
- Jalin Turner: (-265) vs. Edson Barboza: (+200)
- Iwo Barnaniewski: (-178) vs. Ibo Aslan: (+138)
- Mairon Santos: (-210) vs. Muhammad Naimov: (+162)
Former light heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz will face rising contender Bogdan Guskov at UFC 323 on December 6th. The Polish veteran enters as a slight favorite despite losing his last two fights.
Blachowicz holds a 29-11-1 record and stands 6’2″ with a 78-inch reach. The 42-year-old has gone 12-8-1 inside the UFC since 2014. He averages 3.44 significant strikes per minute with 49% accuracy while absorbing 3.03 strikes.
His striking defense sits at 52%. Blachowicz lands 1.03 takedowns per fight at 48% accuracy and has a strong 69% takedown defense. He holds nine knockout victories and nine submission wins in his career.
Guskov brings an 18-3 record and measures 6’3″ with a 76-inch reach. The 33-year-old Uzbekistan fighter has won four straight fights by finish since losing his UFC debut to Volkan Oezdemir in 2023. His recent streak includes three knockouts and one submission.
Guskov averages 4.17 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy while absorbing 3.30 strikes. His striking defense registers at 45%. He attempts 1.1 submissions per fight but has landed zero takedowns in the UFC at 0% accuracy.
Recent Performance Analysis
Blachowicz recently lost to Carlos Ulberg by unanimous decision. Before that, he dropped a split decision to Alex Pereira and fought to a controversial draw with Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant title in 2022. All three fights went the distance.
Guskov’s last victory came via first-round knockout of Nikita Krylov. He has finished all four of his UFC wins and hasn’t seen a third round since 2019 as an amateur. His longest recent fight lasted two rounds.
The Polish fighter relies on low leg kicks and grappling control. He has solid submission skills and can frustrate opponents with dominant positions. His experience against top-ranked opponents gives him a technical edge.
Fighter Advantages
Guskov’s youth provides potential cardio and recovery advantages throughout three rounds. His explosive power has resulted in 15 career knockout victories. The one-inch height advantage favors Guskov despite giving up two inches in reach.
Blachowicz’s championship experience shows in his striking exchanges. His ability to survive against elite competition like Pereira and Ankalaev demonstrates his durability. He excels at extending fights and working his game plan.
Guskov’s 57% takedown defense presents vulnerability against wrestling approaches. Blachowicz’s 69% takedown defense keeps scrambles in his favor. The veteran’s grappling threat could become crucial in later rounds.
The betting odds opened with Guskov at +130 before immediately flipping to -130. Blachowicz’s line moved from -150 to +110 at one point before settling at -125 to -140. The market shows divided opinion on the outcome.
Bookmakers favor an early finish at -182 over the fight going the distance at +144. Both fighters possess knockout power and recent finishing history. Guskov’s four consecutive stoppages and high output create constant danger.
Blachowicz has multiple shoulder surgeries in his history. His recent opponents failed to finish him despite their knockout power. The veteran’s ability to reach scorecards could prove vital against Guskov’s explosive style.
