TLDR
- Henry Cejudo enters as +215 underdog against favorite Payton Talbott (-290) at UFC 323 on December 6th in Las Vegas
- Cejudo is 0-3 since returning from retirement in 2023, while 27-year-old Talbott rebounded from his first career loss
- The former two-division champion plans to retire after this fight, his first against an unranked opponent in 10 years
- Talbott holds advantages in height (5’10” vs 5’4″), reach (70″ vs 64″), and striking output (6.05 vs 3.82 per minute)
- Fight is favored to go the distance at -215 odds, with both fighters known for durability
UFC 323 Main Event Betting Odds
Bantamweight Championship
- Merab Dvalishvili (-500) vs. Petr Yan (+340) – Over/Under: 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 / Under +280)
Complete UFC 323 Fight Card Odds
Main Card (10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT)
- Alexandre Pantoja: (-245) vs. Joshua Van: (+186) – Flyweight Championship
- Brandon Moreno: (-104) vs. Tatsuro Taira: (-122)
- Payton Talbott: (-265) vs. Henry Cejudo: (+200)
- Jan Blachowicz: (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov: (-106)
Preliminary Card
- Maycee Barber: (-172) vs. Karine Silva: (+134)
- Mansur Abdul-Malik: (-950) vs. Antonio Trocoli: (+500)
- Fares Ziam: (-160) vs. Nazim Sadykhov: (+124)
- Grant Dawson: (-235) vs. Manuel Torres: (+180)
- Chris Duncan: (-194) vs. Terrance McKinney: (+150)
- Brunno Ferreira: (-104) vs. Marvin Vettori: (-120)
- Jalin Turner: (-265) vs. Edson Barboza: (+200)
- Iwo Barnaniewski: (-178) vs. Ibo Aslan: (+138)
- Mairon Santos: (-210) vs. Muhammad Naimov: (+162)
Fight Time: December 6, 2025
- Las Vegas (PT): Evening Card
- New York (ET): Late Evening Card
- London (GMT): Early Morning (Dec 7)
Henry Cejudo faces Payton Talbott at UFC 323 inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The former Olympic gold medalist and two-division UFC champion enters as the underdog. This marks what Cejudo says will be his final fight.
The 37-year-old Cejudo holds a 16-5 record but hasn’t won a fight since 2020. He returned from a three-year retirement in 2023 and went 0-3 against top competition. Those losses came to Aljamain Sterling, Merab Dvalishvili, and Song Yadong.
Talbott brings a 10-1 record and youth on his side at 27 years old. He suffered his first career loss to Raoni Barcelos earlier this year. The setback was temporary as Talbott bounced back with a win over Felipe Lima six months later.
The physical differences favor Talbott in this matchup. He stands six inches taller at 5’10” with a 70-inch reach. Cejudo measures 5’4″ with a 64-inch reach disadvantage.
The Striking Battle
Talbott outputs 6.05 strikes per minute with 54% accuracy. Cejudo lands 3.82 strikes per minute at 47% accuracy. The younger fighter’s volume creates pressure that buries opponents who can’t maintain pace.
Cejudo absorbs 3.46 strikes per minute compared to Talbott’s 3.26. However, Cejudo’s striking defense sits at 59% while Talbott defends at 46%. The veteran’s defensive skills and counter-striking ability remain sharp.
Cejudo adapted karate into his standup style during his championship run. He landed crisp straight rights and heavy kicks with improved movement. Those skills helped him defeat legends like Demetrious Johnson, T.J. Dillashaw, and Dominick Cruz.
The Wrestling Factor
Cejudo’s Olympic wrestling pedigree gives him a clear grappling advantage. He averages 1.84 takedowns per fight at 31% accuracy. His 76% takedown defense keeps scrambles in his favor when opponents shoot.
Talbott shows minimal offensive grappling with 0.24 takedowns per fight at 25% accuracy. His takedown defense matches Cejudo at 76%, having improved in his last fight. He relies on athleticism and scrambling ability rather than technique.
The concern for Cejudo is his inability to hold opponents down. He hasn’t developed a strong top game despite his world-class wrestling background. Talbott can focus on getting back to his feet rather than defending submissions.
Cejudo’s best strategy involves making the fight as slow as possible. On the feet, he needs to be evasive and force Talbott to chase. When wrestling, he should try to stall and control position without expending energy.
Talbott’s path to victory is straightforward. He needs to make Cejudo work constantly and refuse him chances to recover. His size and output advantages allow him to win by maintaining relentless pressure.
Cejudo spoke about his retirement with peace and conviction before the fight. He expressed gratitude for his coaches and training partners who sacrificed time with their families. The emotional farewell marks the end of a Hall of Fame career.
This represents Cejudo’s first fight against an unranked opponent in 10 years. The betting lines reflect concerns about his age, losing streak, and physical disadvantages. Talbott acknowledged he expects to face the best version of Cejudo.
The odds favor the fight going the distance at -215. Both fighters possess proven durability throughout their careers. Early finish odds sit at +164 reflecting tactical approaches that accumulate rounds.
