TLDR
- Anthony Hernandez is a heavy -278 favorite over former champion Sean Strickland (+225)
- Hernandez rides an 8-fight win streak with 6 finishes; Strickland is coming off a title loss to du Plessis
- The winner likely earns a shot at new middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev
- Hernandez averages 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes; Strickland has 76% takedown defense
- Most analysts predict Hernandez wins by decision, with the fight likely going the distance
Full Main Card Odds
Fight Time – UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
| Time Zone | Time |
|---|---|
| Eastern (ET) | 8:00 PM Saturday |
| Central (CT) | 7:00 PM Saturday |
| Mountain (MT) | 6:00 PM Saturday |
| Pacific (PT) | 5:00 PM Saturday |
| GMT (UK) | 1:00 AM Sunday |
| AEST (Australia) | 12:00 PM Sunday |
Venue: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas Stream: Paramount+
UFC Houston: Strickland vs. Hernandez — Odds, Card Breakdown and What’s at Stake
MMA Fighter Highlights | Prospects Making DEBUT on UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez | UFC PREVIEW
📺https://t.co/u2btsRyj12
🚩Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez
🚩Geoff Neal vs. Uroš Medić
🚩Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa
🚩Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija pic.twitter.com/Pp3Tykw5f3— UFC FIGHT NIGHT (@kibria29638) February 21, 2026
Sean Strickland and Anthony Hernandez meet in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Houston on February 21, 2026. A title shot at new middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev could be on the line for the winner.
Strickland (29-7) is the former UFC middleweight champion. He enters this fight as a +225 underdog, his second straight title fight loss coming against Dricus du Plessis in February 2025.
Hernandez (15-2, 1 NC) carries an 8-fight win streak into Saturday night. Nicknamed “Fluffy,” he has finished six of those eight opponents and is headlining his third UFC main event.
The oddsmakers favor Hernandez heavily at -278. Strickland has pushed back on that assessment publicly, saying his opponent has only beaten fighters he could “write a clinic on.”
The Styles Matchup
Strickland is a high-volume boxer who relies on pressure and constant output. He has solid takedown defense, stopping 76% of attempts across his career.
Hernandez is one of the most active grapplers in the division, averaging 6.46 takedown attempts per 15 minutes. He does his best work on the ground with heavy top control and chain wrestling.
Only two of Strickland’s last 11 fights have ended inside the distance. Analysts widely expect this one to go to the judges as well.
Hernandez has nine submission wins on his record compared to Strickland’s four. Strickland has 11 knockout wins to Hernandez’s three.
What’s at Stake
A win for Hernandez would give him a strong case for the next middleweight title shot. His 8-fight win streak and wins over former champions would put him ahead of or level with contender Nassourdine Imavov.
For Strickland, a loss would drop him down the rankings. A win puts him back in the title conversation against Chimaev, a fresh matchup with commercial appeal.
Strickland is 34 years old. Hernandez is 32. Both stand at or near six feet tall with near-identical reach.
Elsewhere on the card, Geoff Neal (-218) meets Uros Medic (+180) at welterweight. Neal has spoken publicly about overcoming a five-year battle with substance abuse ahead of this fight.
Dan Ige (+180) faces Melquizael Costa (-218) at featherweight. Ige revealed he fought his last bout with undiagnosed eye trauma and says he is now healthy and prepared.
Josiah Harrell makes his long-awaited UFC debut against Jacobe Smith (-310). Harrell was pulled from a UFC 290 booking in 2023 after doctors discovered Moyamoya, a rare brain disease that narrows arteries to the brain.
Ante Delija (-142) takes on Serghei Spivac (+120) in a heavyweight bout. Delija is looking to rebound from a first-round knockout loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta last November.
The main card begins at 8 PM ET on Paramount+ from the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.
