TLDR
- Conor McGregor returns to the UFC after five years away to face Max Holloway at UFC 329 on July 11 in Las Vegas
- Betting markets on Kalshi have McGregor as a 36% underdog compared to Holloway’s 64% favorite status
- McGregor has won just one of his last four fights since 2018, including two TKO losses to Dustin Poirier
- Holloway has won four of his last six fights and lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy
- The welterweight bout is expected to end in a knockout with 76% of traders betting against it going to the judges
Sources: si.com | themaclife.com
Conor McGregor will return to the UFC Octagon after a five-year absence when he faces Max Holloway at UFC 329 on July 11 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The fight marks a rematch between the two fighters, with McGregor having defeated Holloway earlier in their UFC careers.
Betting markets on Kalshi have McGregor entering as a heavy underdog. When the market opened on May 17, Holloway was a 76% favorite compared to McGregor’s 24%.
The gap has closed somewhat as fight week approaches, with current numbers showing Holloway at 64% and McGregor at 36%. A $10 bet on McGregor would return $16.58 in profit, while the same bet on Holloway would pay out $5.01.
The bout is scheduled for welterweight at 170 pounds. McGregor has previously competed three times at welterweight, while Holloway will make his divisional debut.
McGregor’s Recent Struggles
McGregor’s record since 2018 tells a difficult story. He has fought just four times and lost three of those bouts.
His losses began with a defeat to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2018. After that, he scored a knockout victory over Donald Cerrone before suffering two TKO losses to Dustin Poirier.
Conor McGregor just dropped new photos, and he looks incredibly sharp, lean, and strong. He is completely locked in. 🇮🇪#UFC329 pic.twitter.com/38rCyYFqWN
— McGregorUpdates (@UpdatesMGregor) July 4, 2026
McGregor’s most recent fight in 2021 ended with a doctor stoppage due to a broken tibia. The injury kept him out of competition for an extended period.
Despite the long layoff and recent losses, McGregor says he feels confident. “I feel great. I feel absolutely amazing. Stellar,” McGregor told The Mac Life.
McGregor said his training camp has been focused on quiet, hard work. “We’ve been quiet this camp, and we’ve been at work. So, that’s confidence,” he said.
Holloway’s Current Form
Holloway enters the fight near the peak of his career. He has won four of his last six fights, with two coming by knockout or TKO.
Holloway lands 6.91 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy. He has landed over 1,000 more significant strikes than anyone else in UFC history.
On defense, Holloway allows just 42% of opponent strike attempts to land. He absorbs 4.61 significant strikes per minute.
McGregor absorbs 4.66 significant strikes per minute at 46% accuracy from opponents. The statistics suggest Holloway holds advantages in both offense and defense.
McGregor addressed his opponent’s strengths in his interview. “Danger will be everywhere inside the Octagon for Max. We are very aware of him in this gym, in this camp,” he said.
McGregor also referenced their first meeting. “Listen, there’s a different thud when you fight against me. I fought against Max many years ago, and I look forward to my improvements on it,” he said.
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Fight Predictions
Betting markets expect the fight to end before the judges’ scorecards. Only 47% of traders believe the fight will go the distance, while 91% expect it to end early.
For Holloway to win by knockout or TKO, 63% of traders say yes. Overall, 76% of the market expects the fight to end by knockout or TKO regardless of winner.
The UFC 329 main card starts at 5 p.m. EST on Paramount+. The McGregor-Holloway bout will serve as the main event of the evening.
