Welcome to S#*%ty MMA Analysis, guaranteed to get you a right pick eventually based on the laws of probability.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
With all the nerds out there watching tape and breaking down fighters’ techniques using tried and tested methods, I thought it would be a lot cooler to use novice-like intuition, random bits of trivia, and stuff I read on the internet as a way to predict the outcomes of fights. After all, I went to an MMA gym for five months and once got a guy to tap in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu because I farted when I was going for an armbar.
I’m pretty much an ultimate fighter.
Today we’re breaking down the Rakic vs. Smith main card. Don’t forget to follow me on Twitter and Instagram at @AllDayAuger, and like and subscribe to The Body Lock’s YouTube channel.
It’s important because I need a platform for these amazing insights and adoring fans to satiate my hubris.
At the time of this writing, Ricardo Lamas still doesn’t have an opponent so I’m going to skip that match-up, though I’m assuming he’ll face one of the event staff as a last-minute replacement and the ensuing carnage will cause a reboot of the show “Bully Beatdown.”
Let’s dive in!
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Ion Cutelaba
This one is super easy since it’s a rerun. I know Cutelaba said he was faking being hurt in round 1 of their previous fight (which I don’t believe) but even if that’s the case how are you going to lull a guy into lowering his guard when your nickname is “The Hulk”? Cutelaba clearly picked the wrong Avenger to emulate here and barring him showing up on Saturday as Ion “The Black Widow” Cutelaba I think his lack of comprehension about the Marvel cinematic universe gets him stopped again.
Ankalaev via R1 TKO
Alexa Grasso vs. Ji Yeon Kim
Looking at this fight, you’ve gotta take into consideration a couple of key factors. Firstly, Kim’s Tapology profile picture shows her in a gi, so I’m going to automatically assume she’s an ace on the ground. Second, Grasso has fought much higher-level competition than Kim has, including some big names like Jodie Esquibel and Heather Clark, so that experience gap is going to play a big factor. I think the most important piece, however, is that Grasso has alternated wins and losses since 2016, and since she lost the last time out, that means she’ll automatically win. Kim may be a force to be reckoned with on the ground, but it just won’t hold up here.
Grasso via Decision
Robbie Lawler vs. Neil Magny
In the co-main event, “Ruthless” makes his return to the octagon against Neil Magny in a bout that has Robbie Lawler fans saying, “Ohhhh I hope he doesn’t look too bad in this one.” The former welterweight champion is on a three-fight skid for the first time in his career, and although the loss to Ben Askren was debatable, Lawler seems to be slowly morphing into his destined form as the really tough henchman in a movie that stands in the way of the final antagonist. Magny is no world-beater, with his best wins since 2016 being against Anthony Rocco Martin and Li Jingliang, but he also looks like he has a normal functioning body that allows him to fight. That being said, Magny seems like too nice a dude to let Robbie go on a four-fight losing streak, so I think subconsciously he’ll end up getting in his own way and Lawler will end up with a TKO.
Lawler via R3 TKO
Anthony Smith vs. Aleksandar Rakic
This card was originally supposed to be headlined by Zabit Magomedsharipov vs. Yair Rodriguez in what was the closest thing we would ever experience to a human Beyblade match, but instead, we ended up with a dude that apparently owed Glover Teixeira money and a guy who lost a split decision against Volkan Oezdemir. Hooray!
Smith seemed pretty good at beating up old men in the 205 lbs. division up until he lost most of his real teeth, knocking out Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua on his path to a title shot back in 2019. He even finished Oezdemir within three rounds, something that Rakic obviously failed to do. Using the standard MMA math formula, you should get Anthony Smith winning this fight by a 29-27 decision after Rackic blatantly grabs the fence and gets a point taken away.
There are a couple of unknown variables, however, that we must add to the formula. Despite the boring decision loss against “No Time”, Rakic’s name is spelled in such a way that there is a good chance he sleeps outside on a rocky shore because he’s simply that tough. He also made a really strong case that he actually won the decision against Oezdemir, stating that “we all know who the REAL winner is.”, emphasizing “real” in all capital letters. There is no way you read that without thinking maybe he DID win that fight.
After adding those variables, along with Smith now having to find dentures that will hold his mouthpiece in place, it’s clear to see that Rakic will end up winning a controversial split decision, leading Smith to post a similar message on Instagram about how he was robbed.
Rakic via Split Decision
Patrick is a consultant turned journalist who loves the fight game and everything to do with it. Focusing on the politics, business, and general state of MMA are his mainstays, though he'll dabble in analysis and best bets when he can. He also enjoys football, basketball, baseball, and great jokes in general so feel free to reach out and berate him on social media whenever you disagree with him.