Kicking off the main card of UFC Vegas 87 will be exciting flyweights Matt Schnell and Steve Erceg.
Schnell is a true veteran of the UFC Flyweight division. Making nine trips to the octagon at 125 lbs, Schnell has made a name for himself as one of the most action-oriented fighters in the division.
Steve Erceg hasn’t wasted any time since joining the UFC last June. A win over the ranked David Dvorak immediately earned Erceg a spot in the top 15 and he’s going to be looking to continue his ascent in the rankings against Schnell.
Betting Odds
Steve Erceg finds himself as a heavy favorite over the top 15 veteran in Matt Schnell:
Fight Breakdown
Matt Schnell makes his return to the octagon for the first time since a knockout loss to Matheus Nicolau in December of 2022. Schnell is nothing if not an exciting fighter. With 11 finishes in his 16 pro wins, Schnell doesn’t see the scorecards nearly as often as other flyweights. Part of that is because of his aggressive style, walking forward with feints and reacting to any strike from his opponent with a flurry of punches. He’s best when he can time his opponent with the check left hook which he follows up with the straight right. He’ll work in some kicks as well but his calling card is his grappling.
Like with his striking, Schnell is all action on the ground. Even off his back (which is where he spends the majority of time), he’s always working for a submission or sweep. He isn’t a super effective wrestler, averaging less than half a takedown per 15 minutes. If he’s able to work on the ground from top position, he’s efficient with his passes and will rain down ground and pound if the submission doesn’t present itself.
The other reason why Schnell is involved in so many exciting fights is his lack of chin. It’s been tested time and time again and it seems like each time someone lands flush, it drops him. He was dropped multiple times in his last fight with Matheus Nicolau before being finished via TKO and Sumudaerji had hurt him on multiple occasions as well in their bout. The aggressive style of Schnell doesn’t help hide this weakness but he also leaves his chin high, can come in with his head on the center line and leaves a lot of holes in his high guard.
His opponent is Steve ‘Astro Boy’ Erceg. Erceg, 28, made his name known quickly with a unanimous decision victory over David Dvorak in a short-notice debut. This put him into the rankings immediately and he has already successfully defended the number beside his name against Alessandro Costa. He’s not the most powerful fighter but what he lacks in strength, he makes up for in technique.
Erceg is a tall flyweight at 5’8 and he uses that length to work long strikes. He throws a lot of jabs and straight right hands as well as an array of kicks. He likes to poke at the body with his right leg front kick and attacks the leg and head with a quick round kick. He’s not looking to engage in a firefight and does a good job at staying balanced when he does throw.
The defensive movement of Erceg is another area where he’s impressed. He has quick footwork and reaction time to move out of range and circle back to space when his opponent tries to enter. He’s not lacking in his guard either. He keeps the right hand glued to his chin as he retreats and will utilize more head movement when his opponent comes forward aggressively.
The reliance on this evasive movement is something I think will be a problem for Erceg as he begins to fight better and better competition in the top 15. He rarely throws counters and without that threat, his opponents can come forward with long combinations. Those combos often miss but the more they extend the combo, the more success they have finding his chin. I’d really like to see more willingness to counter and take an angle instead of retreating with no threat of a return shot.
Rounding out Erceg’s game is his solid grappling. He’s struggled at securing takedowns but doesn’t get deterred easily. We saw him push Alessandro Costa against the fence time and time again to fish for position and get a sweep/trip. He’s obviously confident in his submission game however as he’s quick to wrap up the neck and look for guillotines over defending takedowns. He’s willing to put himself in danger of losing position to chase these submissions which can be OK against lower level grapplers, but likely won’t fly against a grappler like Schnell.
Matt Schnell’s gameplan to get the upset will revolve around wrestling. I think Schnell will be better at securing takedowns and Erceg often focuses on offense over defending takedowns. While Erceg works well off his back to get to the feet, Schnell is a savvy grappler and is likely to find some submission to chase. If I’m Matt’s coach, I’m asking him to avoid the stand up as much as possible. Erceg is far from the most powerful puncher, but with how easily Schnell has gotten rocked, I wouldn’t be surprised if it only takes one or two straight right hands to sit him down.
For Steve Erceg to win, he’s going to need to work behind that jab and kicks. He should test the durability of Schnell with his high kicks and use his feints to set up the power shot with his hands. His movement defensively should help avoid a majority of takedown attempts and counters that come from Schnell as he attempts to time Erceg’s strikes. If the damage doesn’t get Schnell out of there early, Erceg has a great gas tank and will be capable of working the same things that work over all three rounds.
Prediction
At this point, I can’t trust the chin of Schnell to allow him to work his offense. He relies on his timing and it’ll be hard to time the strikes of someone like Erceg who is so good with his feints and kicks. Astro Boy is a bit too willing to engage in clinches that won’t result in takedowns which gives me pause to take him to win inside the distance.
However Schnell is most dangerous on the ground by far and I don’t expect Erceg to rely on his grappling to win this one. I’m expecting the finish to come by knockout but with Erceg’s quick trigger on submissions, it’s just as likely that he taps out Schnell after scoring a knockdown.
Free picks please