UFC on ESPN 36: Virna Jandiroba vs. Angela Hill prediction, odds, preview

Virna “Carcara” Jandiroba is a Brazilian strawweight with a 17-3 professional record. She is currently ranked #12 in the division and has gone 3-2 in her most recent 5 fights. All three of her wins have come by finish and both losses by decision.

Angela “Overkill” Hill, 37, is four years older than Jandiroba and ranked one spot below her in the division. In her last five fights, Hill is 1-4 with all five fights going to the cards. She’ll face Jandiroba at UFC on ESPN 36 this weekend.

Betting Odds

Jandiroba’s odds are slowly growing wider as we get closer to fight night. Currently, she’s listed at odds of -180 on BetUS.

• Jandiroba: -180
• Hill: +150

Breakdown

Jandiroba has rare finishing ability for the division; she’s finished 14 of her 17 professional wins. Historically, Jandiroba’s path to victory is to get the fight to the mat and take an arm or neck home with her. Recently, Jandiroba has added a new level to her game. “Carcara’s” striking has gone from non-existent to sloppy but powerful. She has started to swing big on the feet; and, although the striking doesn’t look the best, the desired effect is successful- knock her opponent down, or crash distance to get ahold of her opponent. In either case, Jandiroba’s game plan centers around getting the fight to the mat because one she does, she soon finds the finish. Jandiroba has 13 professional submission wins. When in top position, she’ll often look for a lethal triangle choke. When on the bottom, she’ll pivot her hips, grab ahold of an arm, and crank until she taps or gets a technical knockout due to arm injury. Regardless of the position, Jandiroba’s submission game is impressive. Her struggles in the octagon center around technical strikers and her own cardio. When she has faced high end strikers with the cardio to push a pace, Jandiroba can get touched up on the feet and slow down as the fight progresses.

Hill is a well-rounded fighter who does one aspect of MMA extremely well- weaponizing cardio. Hill, even at 37, has some of the best cardio in the division and she knows how to use it. From the opening bell, Hill pressures forward and throws a variety of strikes for the entire 15 minutes. Her striking game is volume-based but lacks power and even accuracy. She rarely hurts her opponent with a single shot; but, rather, accumulates damage as the fight progresses. She’s been in so many split decision fights, 5, because her volume often lands on her opponent’s shoulders or guard. Nevertheless, Hill will continue to throw and pressure forward. When her pressure inevitably pushes the fight to the cage, Hill has a strong clinch wrestling game to maintain control throughout the round.

Prediction

Hill has the cardio and pressure that has given Jandiroba problems in the past; however, without the ability to land heavy, Jandiroba will have 15 minutes to find the takedown. If the fight hits the mat, I fully expect Jandiroba to find the finish. If not, I like Jandiroba to land the more damaging shots on the feet, even if they come less frequently than Hill’s strikes.

Prediction: Jandiroba to win

Jandiroba is listed at -180 odds on BetUS. A wager of $100 would return $155.60 if she wins this weekend.