Jafel Filho vs. Ode Osbourne prediction | UFC Fight Night 239 1

Jamican-American bantamweight Ode Osbourne returns to action this Saturday when he takes on Brazil’s Jafel Filho.

A UFC fighter since earning a shot on Dana White’s Contender series in 2019, Osbourne has secured victories over Charles Johnson and C.J. Vergara, among others. He is most recently coming off of a disappointing loss to Asus Almabayev and looks to beat Filho in order to put himself back on track in the win column.

Filho, who will be competing in just his third UFC fight, broke onto the scene by nearly breaking the leg of Muhammad Mokaev in his short notice debut in 2023. Although ultimately losing the fight, Filho cemented himself as a submission artists fans would keep an eye on, and proved so once again when he finished his next opponent Daniel Barez by first round choke later that year.

Betting Odds

Ode Osbourne will come into the bout as a decent-sized underdog.

  • Ode Osbourne: +145 (BetUS)
  • Jafel Filho: -175 (BetUS)

Fight Breakdown

Ode Osbourne is a dangerous striker with good wrestling. He stands in the conventional stance, and is constantly feinting a twitching, keeping his opponent from settling in on anything with too much confidence. Osbourne is a fighter who thrives when he is in his flow state, when comfortable and feeling creative he throws powerful kicks from the outside and chains his strikes together extremely well. When he is caught waiting for a takedown, and does not feel free to throw and mix up his style, that hesitancy costs him dearly.

As a southpaw against the orthodox Filho, watch for Osbourne to attack the open body kick, as well as attack the leg both from the inside, and with the outside left switch. In his more recent fights his output in terms of kicking the legs has more than doubled, and he has shown powerful Muay Thai skills in this area. One hole in Osbourne’s game, is because he does tend to drop his hands and be overly loose, he has been caught coming in and caught with elbows when breaking the clinch, however this also allows him to mix up the angles of his shots coming upward especially his jab and lead uppercut.

Jafel Filho has a much more open striking style. He does tend to wind up on his punches, however he flows well with them. He has a nice right body hook to left hook high, and he moves forward with his punches well to force his opponents back towards the cage.

Against Osbourne, it would make the most sense for Filho to take the fight to the ground whenever he can. Osbourne has shown an active guard, attacking arm-bars and triangles from his back, but rarely having much success. He does come from a wrestling background, so he will be difficult to takedown on the cage, however Filho has a great blast double and should also have success attacking singles in space as Osbourne has been caught with a short base more than once.

It’s also important to note that in longer grueling fights we have seen Osbourne start to revert back to his wrestling roots later in the fight despite having more success striking, so if we see a round three and Filho is having some success touching Osbourne, watch for Filho to invite takedowns and attack the neck as he is known to do.

Filho is confident throwing a bit more wild on the feet knowing he is so competent if he is taken down, he likes to roll on legs during scrambles, and attack front chokes if his opponents shoot on him. When he finishes his own takedowns, look for him to lace one leg and start climbing his way to the back by securing motorcycle grips, which is when he gets a hold of his opponents wrists through their underarm while moving onto the back.


When the fight starts, whether or not Osbourne is overly wearing of the takedown will be evident. If he is able to settle into his game and feel confident enough to strike freely, we will see a much better version of Osbourne, who is probably the faster and more versatile striker on the feet. Chopping at the legs would be smart and trying to work the body from all the way out would also be huge asset.

However, if he comes out tentatively wanting to defend takedowns and counter Filho coming in, he is more likely to get caught reacting to Filho, who can ultimately start setting up his level changes and strikes with feints and get Osbourne guessing.

It is very likely that at some point over the 15 minutes we either see Osbourne revert to his wrestling and Filho wins out a scramble or Filho completing his own takedown and securing control. At that point I think we see the widest gap in all the areas of skill and Filho wins out with superior jiu jitsu.

Pick: Jafel Filho to win (-175 at BetUS)

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