Jaqueline Amorim, 28, dropped her first professional fight in her UFC debut in 2023 via unanimous decision. She rebounded four months later with a third-round TKO finish.
Cory “Poppins” McKenna, 24, earned her UFC ticket with a unanimous decision win on the 2020 version of DWCS. Since then, McKenna has gone 2-1 in the UFC with one submission win and her sole loss coming via split decision.
Betting Odds
The odds in this one have flipped since opening, with McKenna now being the slight favorite.
Prediction
Amorim is an offensively gifted but defensively flawed fighter who struggles to implement her game plan consistently, but when she does, she can look phenomenal. Amorim is a decorated and dangerous jiu-jitsu artist with an assortment of submissions in her arsenal.
She’s won via armbar twice, arm triangle, rear-naked choke, and a kneebar. Amorim is well-versed in her submission attacks from both top and bottom position. But, like many young BJJ aces, she struggles to get opponents down in MMA.
Despite knowing that her best path to victory is on the mat, Amorim has not shown anything impressive or even adequate in the wrestling department, holding only a 23% takedown accuracy stat. She has, however, impressed a bit with the power she carries on the feet.
Much like McKenzie Dern, a higher caliber BJJ strawweight, Amorim looks to unload massive overhand rights to either drop her opponent or close distance so she can get ahold of her opponent.
While her offense, in her world is impressive, her defense and cardio are major concerns. Amorim’s BJJ prowess often means she’s comfortable on her back; and, without a finish, she can spend important minutes being controlled. Then, even more concerningly, Amorim has struggled with cardio in challenging fights.
However, despite her shortcomings, Amorim is a fighter with the fight-ending ability to go on a real run and possibly get a number next to her name at some point in her career.
McKenna is a grinder with a reliable set of skills, albeit unthreatening, that she consistently implements in predictable ways. McKenna has basic striking that is effective enough to create openings for her wrestling.
However, she is undersized and has a short reach so she sometimes has to walk through some fire to close the distance. Once in tight, however, McKenna is a stout wrestler with the cardio to shoot over and over until she gets top control.
Once on top, “Poppins” will use enough ground and pound to hold position but not enough to do any real damage. Her path to victory is often through control time en route to a decision.
Ultimately, McKenna, despite only being 24, is a well-schooled fighter who can power through adversity with defensive awareness, intelligent decision making, cardio, and technique as she works to implement her wrestling game.
Prediction
I’ll be the first to admit that I can fall into the same trap when it comes to the smaller weight classes, especially women’s MMA, where finishes are less common. When I see two unranked fighters where only 1 has a real chance to end the fight early, I tend to like that fighter to get the win, despite his or her inadequacies.
McKenna is the less flawed and more consistent fighter, but, it is highly unlikely that she’ll be able to end the fight early. Instead, she likely wins through wrestling and grinding out minutes on top. While she’s capable of doing so, overcoming a 10” reach disadvantage against a more powerful striker and then surviving 15 minutes on the mat against a more threatening grappler is a lot to ask.
Meanwhile, Amorim needs only to improve her wrestling and/or cardio to put herself in positions to win this fight inside the distance or on the judges’ scorecards. And, given her youth and her leading camp- American Top Team- I’m willing to bet we see improvements. I’m betting on Amorim’s improvements, coupled with her already impressive offense, to get the win on Saturday.
Best Bet: Amorim to win (+105 at BetUS)