The former flyweight king Deiveson Figueiredo makes his second appearance in the UFC’s bantamweight class when he takes on its former champion Cody Garbrandt.
Between 2020 and the beginning of 2023, flyweight contenders would sit on the sidelines as the long and competitive rivalry between Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno played out. The two locked horns four times in succession with the 125-pound belt on the line going 1-1-1 in the first three before Moreno put a stamp on things. Following the final battle and ultimately losing the title, Figueiredo made the jump up to 135 pounds and right off the bat defeated #8th ranked Rob Font.
Four years prior to Figueiredo’s title reign, Garbrandt also earned gold of his own. Entering the UFC in 2015, the American rattled off five straight wins before taking on the greatest bantamweight of all time, Dominick Cruz. Most believed the young upstart was just that, a heavy-handed prospect who could KO just about anyone but didn’t have the maturity and experience to take on a technician like Cruz. Putting on one of the most dominant performances in UFC history, Garbrandt toyed with the champion, knocking him down multiple times and showboating while hovering over Cruz. Mixed results would follow, losing his belt to former teammate TJ Dillashaw in back-to-back bouts, followed by another 1-3. After a year and a half hiatus, Garbrandt returned outside of the rankings, beating Trevin Jones and Brian Kelleher. Although a steep drop in competition, Grabrandt seems to be re-inventing himself, however he now steps back up into the ranks to once again compete against a former champion.
Betting Odds
Cody Garbrandt will come into as a heavy underdog against the Brazilian finisher.
Fight Breakdown
As alluded to before, it would seem that Garbrandt is in a state of re-inventing himself as a fighter. Since coming back after his year and a half away we have seen him working with new coaches and leaning on aspects of his game we previously missed. When on the come-up, Garbrandt was primarily a boxer with good wrestling.
Now, under the tutelage of Dewy Cooper, Garbrandt has integrated a good body and low kicks from a distance. This allows him to manage risk much better, prodding his opponents and investing in disrupting their movement before working his way in with his hands. He does a good job of touching, moving and countering, he especially likes the slip off left to right hook and then follow back in with the check left. The exact same slip of timing is used for his reactive level changes, ducking under shots to hit double-leg takedowns.
Figueiredo came into his bantamweight debut in a very specific stance. Absorbing from one of his coaches and fellow fighters, Henry Cejudo, Figueiredo starts rounds in a split, bladed karate stance. He keeps a loose guard which allows him to snap his power jab and cross without much telegraph. When he is in this stance he does shift forward, baiting his opponent to throw something out at his head so he can retract or slip counter. Like Garbrandt, he likes power counters off his power side, but more often lands his right over top of any lazy jabs his opponents throw his way. he then likes to use this to shift further and land a hopping left hook.
Although he may start rounds in a karate stance, over time Figueiredo tends to revert back to a more square and more upright posture. His weight is shifted further back with a lighter leg, so watch for Garbrandt to have more success with low kicks earlier.
Figueiredo, on a technical level, should be the better grappler. Garbrandt has excellent wrestling and scrambles and showed a higher willingness to take the back and attack chokes in this new section of his career, but he is by all means still a striker first. If anything, he is more well-known for hitting takedowns to accumulate points and mix up the tempo before allowing his opponents back up to engage.
Figueiredo has a wider range of takedowns he uses, from snatch singles to trips and throws on the fence to your traditional level changes. he also does a good job of using submission threats to advance position and hit sweeps if on the bottom.
Prediction
This fight is just as much mental as it is physical. Garbrandt, in his last two fights, seems to be continuing to grow his confidence back since losing his title so long ago. He still shows excellent movement and lightning speed, and coming off of the knockout of Kelleher I think few would question his power.
That being said, this is a step up and Figueiredo is a much more dangerous puncher than Jones or Kelleher by a landslide. Garbrandt cannot be too hesitant as Figueiredo does his best when he feels he can bully his opponents. He is accurate and powerful when he can cut off the cage and punch his way in comfortably. On a physical level, I believe the two are very well matched and as long as Garbrandt wants to consistently attack first he can make this a really competitive fight.
Although I like Figueiredo’s chances, at +235 Garbrandt is not a bad underdog. I think skill for skill and physicality it’s a much closer fight than oddsmakers think, however it all comes down to whether or not Garbrandt offers too much respect to the division’s new addition.
Pick: Cody Garbrandt to win (+235 at BetUS)
