UFC on ESPN 29 Predictions: Chase Sherman vs. Parker Porter odds, analysis

Chase “Vanilla Gorilla” Sherman is 15-7 professionally, but only 3-6 in the UFC. He initially joined the UFC in 2016; but, after 2 years and a salty 2-5 record, was given his pink slip. After picking up three consecutive first-round finishes in bare-knuckle boxing, Sherman rejoined the UFC in 2020; since then, he is 1-1, winning via TKO and losing a decision.

Parker Porter has a 10-6 professional record and is 1-1 in the UFC. He took a while to join the promotion, debuting at 35 years old in 2020. He was finished emphatically in the first round by Chris Daukaus; but, responded three months later to earn his first UFC win- a decision victory over Josh Parisian.

Sherman vs. Porter odds

Sherman is nearly a 2:1 favorite over Porter who comes back at a little more than 1.5:1.

• Chase Sherman: -190
• Parker Porter: +155

Sherman vs. Porter breakdown

As his bare-knuckle background may suggest, Sherman is a striker who isn’t afraid of a little blood. Despite often having the height and reach advantage (6’4 and a 78” reach), Sherman prefers to fight in a phone booth where he can hunt for blood. Of his 15 wins, 14 have come via KO/TKO. When at range, Sherman uses leg kicks often to try and slow his opponent. Once his opponent’s movement is compromised, he is able to close the gap and create that in-the-pocket boxing match he prefers.

Sherman’s defense is suspect and his chin is vulnerable— he has a negative strike differential and has been KO/TKO’d 3 times. While his defense is porous, Sherman does make it challenging to hit him clean. He has solid movement, a good jab, a low kick, the power to punish fighters who enter the pocket, and has solid cardio to keep up the pace.

Porter, on the other hand, has average cardio, more of a plotting movement, and rarely mixes up his strikes. Often head-hunting, Porter too tends to get into brawls. 8 of his 10 wins and 5 of his 6 losses have come by finish. Porter tends to stay at range where he plots side to side looking to counter his opponent when they close the gap. He has typical heavyweight power that if he lands a clean counter, he can drop the other guy; but, if his foe can maneuver around the counter and successfully close the gap, Porter struggles to strike in close. His main path to victory is to land a big counter shot or outlast his opponent for a decision win.

Sherman vs. Porter prediction

I don’t anticipate Sherman making a run up the rankings; but, in this fight, he should have the skills needed to win. Sherman has the speed, range, boxing, and power advantage. Getting clipped is always a possibility when two 250+ pound men are swinging at each other; but, I haven’t seen anything from Porter to make me too worried. Sherman should win and win convincingly.

Prediction: Sherman by KO/TKO