A battle of ranked strawweights are set to fight in a bout with top 10 implications. #11 ranked Amanda Lemos, holding a professional record of 10-1-1, will look to secure her 5th straight win inside the octagon. Doing so will not come easy, as she fights one of the most active fighters and long-tenured veteran fighters in the UFC, #13 ranked Angela Hill.
Order UFC 281
Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira is tonight! Watch every UFC 281 fight here.
- Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
- Carla Esparza vs. Zhang Weili
- Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Chandler
Lemos vs. Hill betting odds
Amanda Lemos has an implied win probability of 80% based on the sizable -390 ML price to beat Angela Hill.
- Amanda Lemos: -310
- Angela Hill: +350
Lemos vs. Hill breakdown
Lemos is riding an impressive win streak after taking 2 years off after her last, and only, loss inside the octagon. Since her time off, Lemos has looked nothing shy of impressive. On the feet, Lemos possesses what may be one of the most dangerous striking attacks, whereby she utilizes her natural strength to throw with impressive speed and severe power. In her last two performances, she ended each respective fight quickly and with ease, finishing both in the first round and only absorbing a combined total of 4 strikes by her opponent. Although neither of these opponents are ranked fighters, they do hold a combined professional record of 24-6, illustrating Lemos’ ability to dominate experienced, but non-elite fighters on the feet. In the odd chance Lemos has difficulty out striking her opponent on the feet, as demonstrated in rounds 2 and 3 of her fight against Mizuki, Lemos possesses the ability to get the fight to the ground, landing 2 of 2 takedowns in that fight. Once on the ground, she has an arsenal of attacks that can finish the fight, having won 20% of her fights by submission. In total, Lemos looks to be a potential future title contender in an extremely difficult division at the top; thus, when she fights a non-top 5 fighter, the anticipation should be that she continues her dominance, both on the feet and on the ground if necessary.
Although Hill is 13-10 as a professional and is ranked outside the top 10 of the strawweight division, she is far from an easy fight given her ample experience inside the octagon and having never been TKO/KO’d as a professional. Furthering her difficulty as an opponent, in her 10 losses, 8 have come at the hands of fighters who have been, at one time, considered to be high-ceiling fighters with potential title-contending abilities. In the vast majority of Hill’s fights, both wins and losses, she puts forth a solid performance where she gets the fight in her most advantageous position, against the cage. In this position, Hill has shown the ability to land solid elbows and knees. Moreover, in this position, Hill can clinch-wrestle her way to the ground, where she then lands damaging ground and pound. The problem for Hill in regards to this specific type of matchup against an elite striker is that she struggles to outperform her opponent on the ground more than her opponent does against her on the feet, as evidenced by her recent fight against Tecia Torres. In this fight, Hill looked to be somewhat confused on the feet, and this led to her being far more passive than what would be considered normal for her. This confusion can be attributed to being a level below the elite strikers of the division, leading to her losing close decisions in these matchups. As such, Hill will need to either show improvement on the feet or a greater willingness to rush in to get the fight against the fence early in the fight, thus enabling her to clinch-wrestle her way to victory.
Lemos vs. Hill prediction
Hill’s experience, gritty nature, and propensity to get the fight to a decision warrants strong consideration for her being a live dog in this exciting matchup. Even though this is the case, I anticipate Lemos landing frequently and with power in the early stages of each round. The damage inflicted on Hill should be sizable and difficult to overcome, particularly when damage is valued at a greater rate than control time, both on the fence and on the mat. Thus, I am electing to back the sizable favorite in Lemos.
Bet: Lemos by Decision