TLDR
- Marwan Rahiki is a heavy -700 favorite over Ollie Schmid (+500) at UFC Perth on May 2
- Schmid took the fight on two days’ notice after Jack Jenkins withdrew on April 27
- Rahiki by knockout is listed at -185 odds, making it the most likely outcome
- Rahiki brings an 8-0 record while Schmid makes his UFC debut
- The featherweight bout takes place on the main card starting at 7 a.m. ET Saturday
Sources: RotoWire | MMA Junkie | Sherdog | Bleacher Report
UFC Perth Card Odds
Fight Time
| Time Zone | Prelims | Main Card | Expected Main Event Walkouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET (Eastern) | 4:00 AM | 7:00 AM | ~10:00 AM |
| PT (Pacific) | 1:00 AM | 4:00 AM | ~7:00 AM |
| AWST (Perth/Local) | 4:00 PM | 7:00 PM | ~10:00 PM |
Event streams on ESPN+ (P+). Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia.
In Aussie territory 🇦🇺#UFCPerth Fight Card!
[ May 2 | 7amET | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/ODvYNsZT3W
— UFC (@ufc) May 2, 2026
Marwan Rahiki is listed as a heavy -700 favorite to defeat Ollie Schmid at UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, according to betting odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Schmid, who accepted the fight on short notice, enters as a +500 underdog in the featherweight matchup.
The bout represents Rahiki’s second fight at UFC Perth after his originally scheduled opponent Jack Jenkins withdrew from the card due to an undisclosed injury on April 27. Schmid stepped in just two days later on April 29 to make his UFC debut against the undefeated fighter.
Rahiki brings an 8-0 professional record into the contest at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. The event’s main card is scheduled to start at approximately 7 a.m. ET on Saturday.
Betting Markets Favor Rahiki Finish
The method of victory odds heavily favor Rahiki across all categories. Rahiki is listed at -185 to win by knockout, making it the most likely outcome according to bookmakers.
A Rahiki victory by decision sits at +650 odds. The submission market lists Rahiki at +350 to win by tapout.
With the vig removed, oddsmakers calculate Rahiki has an 84.0% probability of winning the fight overall. Schmid’s implied win probability stands at just 16.0%.
The knockout market shows an 86.7% probability for Rahiki to finish the fight by strikes. Schmid’s chances of winning by knockout are calculated at 13.3% with +900 odds.
Short-Notice Challenge for Schmid
Schmid faces multiple challenges in his UFC debut. He accepted the fight with minimal preparation time and steps into the octagon against an opponent with a perfect professional record.
Betting analysts note that Rahiki’s aggressive striking style and takedown defense make him a difficult matchup. Schmid’s grappling skills offer his best path to victory, though the odds reflect the difficulty of that task.
The decision market gives Schmid a 28.3% chance if the fight goes to the judges’ scorecards. His submission odds sit at +2200, translating to a 16.4% implied probability.
No line movement has been recorded since the odds were initially posted. The moneyline has remained stable at -700 for Rahiki and +500 for Schmid.
The featherweight bout appears on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates. Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates headline the event in a welterweight matchup, with both fighters listed at -110 odds.
Rahiki was previously scheduled to face Jenkins on April 3 before the late opponent change. The fight represents his continued activity in the featherweight division after his last appearance at a Perth event in February 2023.
