TLDR
- Steve Erceg is a -180 favorite against Tim Elliott (+155) for their May 2 flyweight bout in Perth, Australia
- Public betting shows 74% of bets on Erceg compared to 26% on Elliott according to DraftKings data
- Erceg by decision is priced at +100, with over 2.5 rounds favored at -250
- Erceg snapped a three-fight losing streak with a decision win in August, while 39-year-old Elliott has won two straight by submission
- Analysts predict the fight will be decided by wrestling, where Erceg holds the advantage over Elliott
UFC Perth Card Odds
Fight Time
| Time Zone | Prelims | Main Card | Expected Main Event Walkouts |
|---|---|---|---|
| ET (Eastern) | 4:00 AM | 7:00 AM | ~10:00 AM |
| PT (Pacific) | 1:00 AM | 4:00 AM | ~7:00 AM |
| AWST (Perth/Local) | 4:00 PM | 7:00 PM | ~10:00 PM |
Event streams on ESPN+ (P+). Venue: RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia.
In Aussie territory 🇦🇺#UFCPerth Fight Card!
[ May 2 | 7amET | LIVE on @ParamountPlus ] pic.twitter.com/ODvYNsZT3W
— UFC (@ufc) May 2, 2026
Sources: Covers | FanDuel Sportsbook | DraftKings Sportsbook | MMA Fighting | Sherdog | Action Network
Steve Erceg enters as the betting favorite against Tim Elliott for their flyweight bout at UFC Fight Night in Perth, Australia on May 2. Sportsbooks have listed Erceg at -180, while Elliott comes in as the underdog at +155.
The matchup will take place in Erceg’s hometown of Perth, giving the Australian fighter a home crowd advantage. Erceg, known by his nickname “Astroboy,” is coming off a decision victory over Ode Osbourne last August that ended a three-fight losing streak.
Elliott, 39 years old, brings momentum into the fight with two consecutive submission victories. However, analysts point to his typical strategy of outwrestling strikers, which may not be as effective against Erceg’s grappling abilities.
Betting Public Heavily Backs Erceg
Public betting trends from DraftKings show a clear preference for the favorite, with 74% of bets placed on Erceg compared to just 26% on Elliott. This lopsided action reflects confidence in the Australian’s chances on home soil.
Method-of-victory betting markets offer various options for bettors. Erceg by decision is priced at +100, suggesting oddsmakers view a judges’ scorecard finish as the most likely outcome.
Elliott by decision carries longer odds at +335, while the over 2.5 rounds line is set at -250, indicating bookmakers expect the fight to go deep into the scheduled rounds.
FanDuel offers specialty prop bets including Tim Elliott by KO/TKO or Steve Erceg by submission at +290. Another prop features Tim Elliott to win with Round 3 starting at +380.
Fight Analysis Points to Wrestling Battle
Betting analysts suggest the fight will be decided by wrestling and grappling rather than striking. Neither fighter is considered a particularly skilled striker, which puts the focus on ground game.
Erceg holds a wrestling advantage according to expert predictions. Three of his last four victories have gone to decision, showing his tendency to control fights over the full distance rather than seeking finishes.
Elliott has reached the final bell in five of his last eight fights and has landed at least one takedown in 12 consecutive bouts. His career takedown rate demonstrates his commitment to wrestling-based strategies.
Other betting props include Erceg by KO/TKO at +1300 and Elliott by submission at +625. The prop for Tim Elliott by submission or Steve Erceg by KO/TKO is listed at +490 on FanDuel.
The fight represents an opportunity for Erceg to build on his recent win and establish himself in front of his home fans. For Elliott, a victory would continue his current winning streak and prove he remains competitive in the flyweight division despite his age.
