TLDR
- Gauge Young (-130) is a slight betting favorite over Thiago Moises (+110) in their lightweight bout at UFC Winnipeg on April 18
- Young lands 5.71 significant strikes per minute; Moises lands just 2.48
- Moises has the grappling edge, averaging 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes vs. Young’s 30% takedown success rate
- Young defends 71% of takedown attempts, which could limit Moises’s path to victory
- Moises is coming off a first-round KO loss to Jared Gordon in May 2025
| Fight | Fighter 1 | Odds | Fighter 2 | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Event | Gilbert Burns | +245 | Mike Malott | -305 |
| Co-Main | Kyler Phillips | +130 | Charles Jourdain | -155 |
| Main Card | Mandel Nallo | -180 | Jai Herbert | +150 |
| Main Card | Jasmine Jasudavicius | -310 | Karine Silva | +250 |
| Main Card | Thiago Moises | +110 | Gauge Young | -130 |
Fight Time – UFC Winnipeg (April 18, 2026)
| Time Zone | Main Card Start |
|---|---|
| ET (New York) | 10:00 PM |
| CT (Winnipeg/Chicago) | 9:00 PM |
| MT (Denver) | 8:00 PM |
| PT (Los Angeles) | 7:00 PM |
| GMT (London) | 3:00 AM (April 19) |
| AEST (Sydney) | 1:00 PM (April 19) |
Venue: Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg, Canada
Up next… UFC Winnipeg 🔥
1–10, how good is this card? 👀
📸: @Match_Maker_MMA#UFCWinnipeg #MMATwitter pic.twitter.com/g10NHbL7qb
— The Fight Fanatic (@FightFanatic_) April 13, 2026
Thiago Moises vs. Gauge Young
Thiago Moises and Gauge Young meet on the main card of UFC Winnipeg on Saturday, April 18, 2026, at the Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, Canada. The lightweight bout is set for three rounds, with Gauge Young entering as a slight -130 favorite and Moises at +110.
Moises carries a 19-9 record into this fight. The 31-year-old Brazilian stands 5’9″ and competes at 155 pounds with a 70-inch reach.
His last fight was a first-round KO loss to Jared Gordon in May 2025. Before that loss, Moises had beaten Trey Ogden by decision.
Young holds a 10-3 record and is 25 years old. He also stands 5’9″ with a 70-inch reach and competes at 155 pounds.
His last win came against Hayisaer Maheshate by unanimous decision in round three. That was his first victory in the UFC after dropping a short-notice decision to Evan Elder.
The striking numbers favor Young by a wide margin. Young connects on 5.71 significant strikes per minute compared to Moises’s 2.48. Young also has better accuracy, landing 51% of his significant strikes versus Moises’s 42%.
Defensively, Moises absorbs 4.08 significant strikes per minute and blocks 53% of shots. Young absorbs 5.82 per minute and blocks 48%.
Grappling Could Be the Deciding Factor
Moises has the clear edge on the ground. He averages 1.31 takedowns per 15 minutes and completes 35% of his attempts. He also attempts 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes.
Young defends 71% of takedown attempts, which is the highest hurdle Moises will face. Young attempts 0.7 submissions per 15 minutes and finishes 30% of his own takedowns.
The over/under is set at 2.5 rounds. The over is priced at -195 and the under at +150, suggesting oddsmakers expect this fight to go the distance.
In Young’s last fight, he landed 112 of 200 significant strikes against Maheshate, connecting at a 56% rate. He threw 221 total strikes and landed 131.
Moises Needs a Bounce-Back Win
Moises went 19-8 before the Gordon loss knocked him into a must-win spot. His veteran experience — having faced top-ranked lightweights — gives him tactical awareness that Young has not yet been tested against.
Young is making his first main card appearance in the UFC. He has shown high-volume striking and forward pressure in his UFC outings so far.
Moises landed 55% of the significant strikes he threw in the Gordon fight but was stopped before he could impose his game plan. His submission grappling remains his strongest tool.
According to Doc’s Sports, the pick is Gauge Young at -130. ClutchPoints also sees a path for Moises via submission under 2.5 rounds.
