The UFC’s “Iron Lady” or Dana de Ferro in her native Brazil, is a fitting name for straw weight Pollyanna Viana. She makes her UFC return this weekend after two matchups with Emily Ducote fell through in April and May of this year.
Her opponent, Iasmin Lucinda, has just two UFC fights under her belt. However, do not let that fool you into thinking the 21 year old prospect lacks experience. Making her pro debut at just 14, Lucindo already owns a record of 14-5, similar to Viana who sits at 13-5 albeit with a generally high level of competition.
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Betting Odds
Polyana Viana will come into the bout as an underdog at +150.
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Fight Breakdown
Polyana Viana is a very rangy Muay Thai striker. She is aggressive and looks to fight in an upright stance, depending on very sound distance control to fade out and lean away from shots while landing her own from a beat further away. In this sense, she often depends on a slick kicking game, and counter boxing, with whip-like punches that have evident sting on them. While she is not known for always having innate knockout power, she is coming off of her most vicious KO win over Jin You Frey as she prepares for Lucindo.
Given the choice, Lucindo would likely force any women in her division into a boxing match. With quick bouncy footwork, she does well to cut angles and circle her opponents into ferocious boxing combinations. The more relaxed version of Lucindo likes to setup her power cross with a slap left hook while stepping right, with an emphasis on all her entries to land the final straight blow with maximum force. The more aggressive version of her that we have seen will readily throw more hooks in combinations four or five shots committal to all. The power in her right hand especially will force her opponents to circle away, at which point expect the spinning back fists and back kicks to start in order to cut off that exit point.
In her most recent fight, Lucindo showcased how dangerous it is to throw naked kicks at her, as she masterfully times her counter boxing to those kicks. That being said, in her UFC debut, Yazmin Jauregui demonstrated that although Lucindo had the boxing advantage, she can be susceptible to low kicks that are set up properly, which in turns opens her up upstairs. If Polyana Viana just try to throw kicks at range without this set up, it’s likely that we see Lucindo break that distance with an overhand right or a garage of hooks, if Viana is able to feint her way in and cut an angle to kick, she could have some success in slowing Lucindo down. Lucindo in general should be the quicker fighter.
Viana is also especially known for her submission offense. She is one of the few fighters who almost chases the opportunity to put her opponents into her guard. She is very good at playing a high guard if the initial front chokes fail her, and she has a tricky transition in which she fakes a triangle attempt to force her opponent to slip their head out and expose the arm bar. Lucindo is a black belt in her own right, but likely not battle-tested on the mat in the same way Viana has been. Yet, Lucindo’s style of takedown for her jiu jitsu is very well suited to submission defense, as she favors the body lock clinch to drag around and then outside trip, and what she does even better is ride the takedown immediately into mount. She does this consistently, avoiding the guard completely.
Where the problem lies is if she gets to the double undertook position, she has to attack the trip immediately. If she finds herself stalled out in this position against the fence or gets complacent, Viana will use those overlooks to jump guard and go to a neck tai and overlook crunch, a very good position to work for submissions off of her back, especially armbars, as Lucindo’s undertook already sets up her arm to potentially be isolated.
Prediction
Viana definitely has opportunities to win this fight, but a lot of them depend on mistakes from Lucindo. Lucindo has generally been aggressive enough throughout her career to stuff the ability of longer fighters to kick and pick her apart from the outside. If Viana can tag anyone the way she did Frey, she can put them out, but Lucindo can do the same and in an exchange, the speed and power should go to the latter for the most part.
Where it gets the diciest for Lucindo is the submissions, but I see her avoiding the clinch at all cost, maintaining a good boxing range and sprawling and breaking whenever they do clash. She likely will not shoot a takedown but if she does, getting to that position outside the guard directly from the shot is key, and given the potential for one or two takedowns from her, they should likely be safer takedowns positionally.
Pick: Iasmin Lucindo to win (-180 at BetUS)
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