One of the best prospects in the entire UFC, the number 13th ranked bantamweight, Umar Nurmagomedov (16-0; 4-0 in the UFC), is set to fight an unknown, dangerous challenger in Bekzat Almakhan (17-1) who is making his UFC debut.
Umar Nurmagovmedov, the cousin to the arguable GOAT, Khabib Nurmagomedov, has found it difficult to find ranked opponents to face, as his style is dangerous, consistent, and repeatable. Bekzat is unfazed, as he is saying yes to a tremendous opportunity, given a win in his first UFC fight here will propel him into ranked status.
So, while Umar is certainly looking to display his elite skills once more, Bekzat is the one with nothing to lose but a whole lot to gain, and that free-fighting style can be quite dangerous. So, I expect this bout to be a showcase of skill and one where each fighter is looking to stand out amongst the rest on this underrated card!
Betting Odds
Umar Nurmagomedov has an implied 92% win probability coming in at a sizable -1200 favorite over the UFC debutant, Bekzat Almakhan, coming back as a +750 underdog.
Fight Breakdown
Umar is an extremely entertaining fighter earmarked for title contention in the near future. The issue for him is not progression in skill, but acceptance from his fellow bantamweight contenders, as he has had difficulty getting ranked fighters to say yes to fighting him.
I cannot fault anyone for bypassing fighting Umar, as he is elite everywhere the fight takes place. On the feet, he has sound boxing but what makes him special is a non-telegraphed lead leg head kick. This kick, which is thrown without any tell whatsoever, is lightning quick and lands with remarkable accuracy. While a fantastic striking tool to have, Umar does fall in love with this attack slightly too much, as he can forego other strikes or delay his grappling entry given his strong affinity to land a lead-leg high kick.
Perhaps favoring the style of striking, which is extremely high level, is Umar’s only flaw I see, as the other attributes of his game are next to flawless, notably his wrestling.
Unsurprisingly, Umar Nurmagomedov has extremely sound wrestling with a keen ability to find submissions on the mat. The blend of great wrestling with slick submissions mirrors how Islam Makhachev grapples far more than the grueling, ground-and-pound style of grappling Khabib would use in the octagon. The benefit of this is that Umar can finish more fights on the mat, and while the perceived consequence of going for submissions is losing control, Umar does a great job of being patient when finding a submission rather than reckless. So, on the mat, Umar is one that has no demonstrable flaws to date.
Bekzat Almakhan has few demonstrable flaws to the general fan base, as he is an unknown challenger, with minimal tape and having fought in a promotion that gets far less coverage than Cage Warriors, DWCS, etc. The unknown of his game will favor him here along with him finishing 12 of 17 finishes by way of TKO/KO. This finishing ability is impressive, particularly at a lower weight class of 135. While impressive, doing so against UFC competition is a far greater task, and then, doing so against an elite challenger like Umar is a whole other level of test. But, we have seen fighters coming out of the region Almakhan have great success carrying over their impressive regional tendencies on the biggest promotion, so I would not put it past him impressing in the UFC.
Prediction
While Bekzat Almakhan can impress from a showcase of skills here, I believe Umar will show there are significant levels to the fight game, with his being the highest. Not only does Umar have the striking to stand against Bekzat, the UFC experience advantage, and the comfort fighting UFC debutant opponents coming from the same region as Bekzat – Sergey Morzov – but also, has grappling to take the striker down and successfully find a submission.
I expect Umar, a fighter who has a smart game plan each time he enters the octagon, to grapple early here as Bekzat is dangerous on the feet. Further, Bekzat’s lone loss has come via submission, so I anticipate Umar seeing this as a path to victory, and ultimately, expect him to secure a submission in this fight.
Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by submission (+140 at BetUS)
