TLDR
- Brendan Allen (27-7) meets Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2) in the UFC Vegas 122 main event Saturday
- Allen enters on a three-fight winning streak while Duncan has won five straight fights
- Betting odds slightly favor Allen at -117 versus Duncan at +100
- Allen’s grappling and submission game presents the biggest threat to Duncan’s striking style
- This is Duncan’s first UFC main event while Allen has more experience in five-round fights
Sources: clutchpoints.com | mmamania.com
UFC Vegas 122 takes place Saturday at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event features middleweight contender Brendan Allen against Christian Leroy Duncan in a five-round fight.
Allen enters the bout with a 27-7 record and has won his last three fights. He defeated Edmen Shahbazyan by unanimous decision in June and stopped Reinier de Ridder after four rounds last October.
UFC VEGAS 122 PREDICTIONS🥊
• Brendan Allen ML (By Finish)
• Matheus Camilo ML (By Finish)
• Ketlen Souza ML (By Dec)
• Andre Fili ML (By Dec)
• Otar Tanzilovi ML (By Finish)
• Gerald Meerschaert (By Finish)
• Francisco Prado ML (By Finish)
• Leon Shahbazyan ML (By Sub… pic.twitter.com/ypVqzqiCO1— PepMotion (@PepMotionn) October 8, 2026
Duncan brings a 15-2 record and an impressive five-fight winning streak into the contest. His recent victories include unanimous decisions over Roman Dolidze and Jared Cannonier, both ranked opponents in the division.
The betting odds favor Allen slightly at -117, while Duncan sits at +100 according to BetOnline. The over/under for 3.5 rounds is set at -115 for the over and -101 for the under.
The Grappling Factor
Allen’s biggest advantage appears to be his grappling skills. He has recorded 14 submission victories throughout his career and poses a serious threat on the ground.
Duncan holds a four-inch reach advantage and relies on his striking ability. His footwork and varied kicking attack have allowed him to control distance against previous opponents.
In his fight against Cannonier, Duncan gave up five takedowns but still won the striking battle 68-15. This shows he can recover from grappling exchanges and return to his preferred striking range.
Allen completed only one of four takedown attempts against Shahbazyan in his last fight. Shahbazyan edged him in strikes 90-89, suggesting opportunities exist for a sharper striker like Duncan.
This marks Duncan’s first UFC main event appearance. Allen has more experience in five-round fights and could benefit from the extended format.
Weekend Lock Predictions
MMAmania’s betting expert picked a different fight for their weekend lock. Andre Fili versus Kai Kamaka III is expected to go the distance at -150 odds.
Fili has recorded just one finish since 2019 despite multiple fights during that stretch. He typically wins by decision rather than stoppage.
Kamaka has zero finishes in his UFC career. He relies on technical striking, volume, and movement rather than knockout power.
Both fighters are expected to exchange strikes for all three rounds without a finish. The fight has potential to win Fight of the Night honors based on their willingness to engage.
For the main event, most predictions favor Allen to win by unanimous decision. The expected scoreline would be close, around 48-47 on the judges’ cards.
Allen’s submission threat and pressure could drain Duncan’s energy over five rounds. Duncan’s best path involves keeping the fight standing and using his reach advantage to land strikes from distance.
