Surprising to some, Dustin Poirier opened as a betting underdog in his second matchup with Justin Gaethje. The first time the two met was in 2018 at UFC on FOX when both men were still upcoming contenders.
Poirier won that meeting by TKO in the fourth round, although they had a competitive bout up to that point. The rematch will be over five years in the making, this time a main event for the UFC’s BMF title at UFC 291 on July 29, 2023.
Despite losing back in 2018, Justin Gaethje opened early as the favorite at -125 to Dustin Poirier’s +105. The UFC betting odds have since shifted the other way with Poirier now sitting around -130 on most sites and Gaethje the new underdog at +106. This means that to win $100 on a Poirier victory would cost $130 and a $100 bet on Gaethje would return $106 in an upset.
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Although it may be surprising to some that Poirier opened as the underdog, it is not surprising that regardless the line is tight. After their fight on FOX, the two fighters have shared eerily similar success in the UFC.
Both men have since gone 6-2 with four finishes and two decisions. Both defeated Michael Chandler and earned interim gold before failing to unify the belts. Both lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira, but are coming off of wins going into their rematch.
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Here are the opening odds for the pair’s last five fights:
Dustin Poirier’s last five fights
- vs. Michael Chandler (W): -200
- vs. Charles Oliveira (L): -165
- vs. Conor McGregor (W): +120
- vs. Conor McGregor (W): +150
- vs. Dan Hooker (W): -165
Justin Gaethje’s last five fights
- vs. Rafael Fiziev (W): +235
- vs. Charles Oliveira (L): +175
- vs. Michael Chandler (W): -140
- vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (L): +285
- vs. Tony Ferguson (W): +155