TLDR
- Jack Hermansson (+200) faces Myktybek Orolbai (-245) at UFC Qatar on November 22, 2024
- Both fighters are moving to welterweight division, with Hermansson dropping from middleweight and Orolbai moving up from lightweight
- Hermansson has alternated wins and losses over his last 10 fights and hasn’t lost back-to-back in seven years
- Orolbai is 3-1 in the UFC with six submission wins in his career and averages nearly six takedowns per 15 minutes
- The fight takes place at 2:15 p.m. ET at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Doha, Qatar
Main Event Odds
Arman Tsarukyan (-650) vs. Dan Hooker (+470)
Full Fight Card Odds
- Belal Muhammad (+220) vs. Ian Machado Garry (-270)
- Volkan Oezdemir (-225) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+185)
- Jack Hermansson (+205) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-250)
- Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-135) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+114)
- Tagir Ulanbekov (-218) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+180)
- Bogdan Grad (+210) vs. Luke Riley (-258)
- Nicolas Dalby (+275) vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev (-345)
- Alex Perez (+180) vs. Asu Almabayev (-218)
- Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1650) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+950)
- Bekzat Almakhan (+114) vs. Aleksandre Topuria (-135)
- Ismael Naurdiev (-142) vs. Ryan Loder (+120)
- Nurullo Aliev (-290) vs. Shem Rock (+235)
- Marek Bujlo (+170) vs. Denzel Freeman (-213)
Fight Time: 1 p.m. ET / 10 a.m. PT / 9 p.m. local time in Qatar Prelims: 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+
Jack Hermansson vs Myktybek Orolbai
Jack Hermansson returns to action against Myktybek Orolbai in a welterweight contest at UFC Qatar. The fight takes place at Ali Bin Hamad al-Attiyah Arena in Doha, Qatar at 2:15 p.m. ET. The event streams exclusively on ESPN+.
This matchup features two fighters changing weight classes. Hermansson, 37, drops from middleweight to welterweight for the first time in his career. Orolbai moves up from lightweight after experiencing difficulties making the 155-pound limit.
Hermansson brings a 24-9 record into the cage. He has competed in the UFC since 2016, posting an 11-7 record with the promotion. His recent form shows five wins and five losses over his last 10 fights dating back to 2019.
The Swedish fighter has alternated between wins and losses during this stretch. He lost his most recent bout against Gregory Rodrigues via first-round knockout. Hermansson has not suffered back-to-back losses in seven years, making him a dangerous opponent despite being the underdog.
At 6-foot-1 with a 77.5-inch reach, Hermansson holds physical advantages over his opponent. He lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute and has proven himself against elite competition. His resume includes wins over Joe Pyfer, Chris Curtis, and Kelvin Gastelum.
Weight Class Changes Add Intrigue
Orolbai enters with a 14-2-1 record and has gone 3-1 inside the UFC since joining in 2023. The 26-year-old from Kyrgyzstan stands 5-foot-10 with a 74-inch reach. He won his last fight via first-round kimura submission over Tofiq Musayev five months ago.
The pressure fighter averages 5.82 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. He has finished six opponents by knockout and six by submission throughout his career. His grappling threat extends to standing neck cranks and submissions from the clinch.
Orolbai suffered his only UFC loss to Mateusz Rebecki in a close decision. That fight showcased his willingness to engage in brawls. His aggressive style has proven effective but leaves questions about how he’ll handle an experienced opponent moving down in weight.
Hermansson’s striking output gives him an edge on the feet. He throws more volume than Orolbai, who lands 3.11 significant strikes per minute. The key for Hermansson will be managing distance and using his three-inch height and reach advantages.
Grappling Battle Expected
Defensive wrestling becomes crucial for Hermansson in this matchup. He boasts an 80% takedown defense rate over his career. His ability to sprawl and discourage takedown attempts could frustrate Orolbai’s game plan.
If the fight stays standing, Hermansson’s counter-striking and activity rate favor him in the later rounds. He typically increases pressure as fights progress. Orolbai must finish early or maintain takedown success to secure victory.
The weight cut adds uncertainty to both fighters’ performances. Hermansson has never made the welterweight limit at age 37. Orolbai’s move up from lightweight could benefit his cardio and strength.
Hermansson holds wins over bigger opponents at middleweight, including a competitive fight with former champion Sean Strickland. His experience against high-level competition gives him confidence despite being the betting underdog. His counter-wrestling and submission offense could help him reverse positions if taken down.
Orolbai’s right hand carries knockout power but requires him to close distance. His 45% takedown accuracy in the UFC shows consistency in getting fights to the ground. He does his best work from the clinch and along the fence.
The three-inch reach disadvantage means Orolbai must work harder to land strikes. His 50% striking defense suggests vulnerability to Hermansson’s volume. The fight airs on ESPN+ at 2:15 p.m. ET from Doha, Qatar.
