TLDR
- Alexandre Pantoja (-238 to -265) defends his flyweight title against Joshua Van (+195 to +200) at UFC 323 on December 6, 2025
- Pantoja brings elite grappling with 2.80 takedowns per fight and world-class jiu-jitsu against Van’s explosive 8.86 strikes per minute
- Van enters on a six-fight win streak but faces his biggest test against a champion with four successful title defenses
- The matchup favors Pantoja’s experience and submission game over Van’s volume striking and youth advantage
- Most analysts predict Pantoja wins via submission in the middle rounds
UFC 323 Main Event Betting Odds
Bantamweight Championship
- Merab Dvalishvili (-500) vs. Petr Yan (+340) – Over/Under: 4.5 Rounds (Over -410 / Under +280)
Complete UFC 323 Fight Card Odds
Main Card (10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT)
- Alexandre Pantoja: (-245) vs. Joshua Van: (+186) – Flyweight Championship
- Brandon Moreno: (-104) vs. Tatsuro Taira: (-122)
- Payton Talbott: (-265) vs. Henry Cejudo: (+200)
- Jan Blachowicz: (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov: (-106)
Preliminary Card
- Maycee Barber: (-172) vs. Karine Silva: (+134)
- Mansur Abdul-Malik: (-950) vs. Antonio Trocoli: (+500)
- Fares Ziam: (-160) vs. Nazim Sadykhov: (+124)
- Grant Dawson: (-235) vs. Manuel Torres: (+180)
- Chris Duncan: (-194) vs. Terrance McKinney: (+150)
- Brunno Ferreira: (-104) vs. Marvin Vettori: (-120)
- Jalin Turner: (-265) vs. Edson Barboza: (+200)
- Iwo Barnaniewski: (-178) vs. Ibo Aslan: (+138)
- Mairon Santos: (-210) vs. Muhammad Naimov: (+162)
Fight Details
Event: UFC 323
Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
Position: Co-Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja defends his UFC flyweight championship against Joshua Van in the co-main event of UFC 323. The bout takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, December 6, 2025.
Pantoja enters with a 28-5 record and four successful title defenses. The 35-year-old Brazilian champion defeated Kai Kara-France via submission in July before knocking out Brandon Moreno in the first round at UFC 301.
Van brings a 15-2 record and rides a six-fight UFC winning streak. The 24-year-old Burmese-American fighter most recently defeated Brandon Royval by decision after stopping Bruno Silva in the third round.
The champion stands 5’5″ with a 67-inch reach. He lands 4.36 strikes per minute with 50% accuracy while absorbing 3.88 strikes. Pantoja averages 2.80 takedowns per fight at 47% accuracy and attempts 1.0 submissions per bout.
Van also measures 5’5″ but with a 65-inch reach. He outputs 8.86 strikes per minute with 56% accuracy while absorbing 6.36 strikes. The challenger averages 0.85 takedowns per fight at 63% accuracy with zero submission attempts.
Pantoja’s striking defense sits at 49% compared to Van’s 57%. On the defensive grappling side, Pantoja defends 69% of takedowns while Van stops 81%.
The Grappling Advantage
The champion’s jiu-jitsu credentials create the biggest stylistic problem for Van. Pantoja has submitted 12 opponents in his career and regularly takes opponents’ backs during scrambles. Van has no decorated grappling background in judo, wrestling, or Brazilian jiu-jitsu.
Van’s sole UFC loss came via knockout to Charles Johnson in 2023. That defeat exposed vulnerabilities against patient, technical opponents who survive early pressure. Pantoja has proven his durability over multiple five-round championship fights.
The oddsmakers favor Pantoja between -238 and -265. Van sits as the underdog at +195 to +200. The betting lines reflect concerns about Van’s grappling defense against an elite submission artist.
Volume vs Experience
Van’s striking output ranks highest in the UFC at nearly nine significant strikes per minute. He consistently attacks the body and throws seven-punch combinations. This pace has overwhelmed lesser competition during his rapid 18-month rise through the flyweight ranks.
Pantoja has competed against elite flyweights for over a decade. He won his title at 33 years old in his 31st professional fight. The champion has cleared out threats from both his generation and younger contenders.
Van’s youth advantage could matter in later rounds. He is 11 years younger than the champion. His cardio allows him to maintain pressure through three rounds consistently.
Pantoja has shown signs of slowing in previous championship fights. However, he has never been finished and possesses an iron chin at 125 pounds.
Van achieved a 7-1 UFC record in just 30 months as a professional. He returned to action only two months after his knockout loss to Johnson. This fight represents his 18th professional bout in four years.
Pantoja’s recent performances suggest he remains at his peak. He easily defeated his last two opponents, both bigger and more experienced than Van. The champion has racked up four title defenses since winning the belt.
Van’s takedown defense stands at 81%, his best attribute against wrestling-heavy opponents. However, he has been taken down by lesser grapplers than Pantoja. His defense relies more on scrambling than technical wrestling.
Pantoja combines suffocating grappling with aggressive Muay Thai striking. He willingly trades strikes to close distance and initiate clinch exchanges. Once he secures position, his back-taking ability and submission threats increase dramatically.
The betting odds for a Pantoja submission victory sit at +145. This represents the most likely finish according to sportsbooks. A decision win for Pantoja is priced at +300.
