TLDR
- Joe Rogan believes Sean Strickland has a legitimate chance to upset champion Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 this Saturday
- Rogan cites Strickland’s elite takedown defense and underrated grappling as key advantages in the matchup
- Strickland enters as a heavy underdog with Chimaev favored at -575 despite his 15-0 undefeated record
- The former champion recently defeated wrestler Anthony Hernandez by third-round TKO in February
- Rogan emphasizes Strickland’s world-class cardio and striking defense as factors that could lead to an upset
Sources: Heavy | Bloody Elbow | Sherdog | MMA Junkie
UFC commentator Joe Rogan believes Sean Strickland has a real chance to defeat middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 this Saturday, citing the challenger’s elite takedown defense and underrated grappling skills.
Rogan made his case on a recent episode of “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast, emphasizing that Strickland possesses the tools to pull off a major upset. “100% he has a shot,” Rogan said.
The longtime UFC analyst pointed to specific skills that could give Strickland an edge. “He’s got some of the best takedown defense in the game, underrated grappling,” Rogan explained.
Joe Rogan makes the case for ‘phenomenal’ Sean Strickland beating Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 328 https://t.co/66rXK6Dl6q pic.twitter.com/oPTKgdQhCd
— Bloody Elbow (@BloodyElbow) May 4, 2026
Strickland Enters as Heavy Underdog
The odds heavily favor champion Chimaev, who is listed at -575 according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The 32-year-old Chechen fighter brings a perfect 15-0 professional record into the bout, with 12 finishes.
Chimaev captured the middleweight title by dominating Dricus Du Plessis over five rounds at UFC 319 last August. This Saturday marks his first title defense at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey.
Strickland, 35, earned his title shot with an impressive third-round TKO victory over Anthony Hernandez in February at UFC Houston. He entered that fight as a +200 underdog but delivered one of his best recent performances against the wrestler.
Rogan highlighted several attributes that make Strickland dangerous despite the betting lines. “Strickland is one of the best fighters on planet Earth,” he said on his podcast.
The commentator emphasized Strickland’s championship experience and conditioning. “He’s a legitimate world champion, he’s a guy who’s accustomed to five-rounders, he’s got phenomenal cardio,” Rogan noted.
Strickland’s defensive striking also drew praise from Rogan. “He’s one of the hardest guys to hit in the sport,” the commentator said.
The Game Plan for Victory
For Strickland to win, keeping the fight standing will be essential. The former champion holds a clear advantage in striking exchanges compared to Chimaev’s wrestling-heavy approach.
Strickland demonstrated his ability to neutralize grapplers in his recent win over Hernandez. That performance showed he can keep fights in his preferred range when facing wrestling-focused opponents.
If the fight hits the mat, Strickland faces a difficult challenge. Chimaev is considered one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC middleweight division.
Du Plessis, who defeated Strickland twice previously, struggled against Chimaev’s grappling for five full rounds. That history suggests Chimaev could find similar success if he gets Strickland to the ground.
The two fighters are former training partners who have become bitter rivals. The trash talk leading up to the fight has turned personal between the competitors.
Strickland previously held the middleweight title and shocked the world by defeating Israel Adesanya as a massive underdog in 2023. He hopes to recreate that upset magic on Saturday night.
Rogan remained careful not to predict a Strickland victory outright. “Strickland can win this fight,” he said, adding “I’m not saying he’s going to win.”
The UFC 328 main event takes place Saturday at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, with Chimaev making his first title defense against the former champion.
