TLDR
- Israel Adesanya is the betting underdog (+112) against Joe Pyfer (-132) at UFC Seattle on March 28, 2026
- This marks the first time in Adesanya’s career he has entered a fight as the underdog
- Adesanya is currently on a three-fight losing streak and has only a 47% win probability according to oddsmakers
- The former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion is 36 years old and says he now focuses on enjoying fights rather than belts
- Adesanya previously shared elite status with fighters like Georges St-Pierre and Islam Makhachev who rarely entered as underdogs
Sources: EssentiallySports | EssentiallySports | EssentiallySports
Israel Adesanya will enter his upcoming UFC Seattle fight as the betting underdog for the first time in his professional career. The former two-time UFC Middleweight Champion faces Joe Pyfer at the Climate Pledge Arena on March 28, 2026.
The betting lines currently list Adesanya at +112 while opponent Joe Pyfer sits at -132. This means oddsmakers give Adesanya only a 47% chance of winning the middleweight bout.
The odds opened as a pick’em matchup but quickly shifted in Pyfer’s favor. Public betting trends following Adesanya’s recent performances appear to have influenced the line movement.
Joe Pyfer is a slight betting favorite over Israel Adesanya for their UFC Seattle main event on March 28. Pyfer at -132, Adesanya +112, marking only the second time “The Last Stylebender” is an underdog in his UFC career. #UFC #JoePyfer #IsraelAdesanya #UFCSeattle #MMA pic.twitter.com/bTS6xmhdRF
— Alkass English (@alkassenglish) January 19, 2026
Three-Fight Losing Streak Changes Everything
Adesanya enters this fight on a three-fight losing streak, which has drastically changed his betting profile. Throughout his career, the 36-year-old has consistently entered fights as the favorite alongside elite fighters like Georges St-Pierre and Islam Makhachev.
This underdog status separates Adesanya from that elite group who maintained favorite status throughout their careers. The shift represents a turning point for a fighter who previously dominated betting boards.
Adesanya has publicly stated his mindset has changed entering the later stages of his career. He now focuses on enjoying fights rather than pursuing championship belts.
UFC Seattle Fight Card Details
The event will mark the UFC’s fifth visit to Seattle. It will be the promotion’s first trip to the city since UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song in February 2025.
The Adesanya vs. Pyfer bout headlines the UFC Fight Night card, which will stream on Paramount+. A women’s flyweight co-main event features Alexa Grasso against Maycee Barber.
Several other bouts have been confirmed for the card. A heavyweight matchup between Valter Walker and Marcin Tybura is scheduled, along with women’s flyweight Casey O’Neill versus Gabriella Fernandes.
The card also includes women’s strawweight Nicolle Caliari fighting Caroline Foro. Middleweight fighters Mansur Abdul-Malik and Yousri Belgaroui will meet on the same night.
Featherweight matchups include Zhu Kangjie against Márcio Barbosa and Julian Erosa facing Lerryan Douglas. Veteran welterweight Michael Chiesa returns for a homecoming fight against Carlston Harris.
Adesanya has indicated he plans to retire from UFC without transitioning to boxing. He stated he would only consider boxing for a high-paying opponent like promoter Turki Alalshikh.
The 57% win probability currently assigned to Pyfer reflects the betting public’s assessment of Adesanya’s recent form. The former champion’s underdog status at UFC Seattle represents a career first as he attempts to snap his three-fight losing streak on March 28, 2026.
